Japan’s Ruling Coalition Falters In Upper House Election As Political Pressure Mounts

 

Japan’s ruling coalition is poised to lose its majority in the upper house, according to exit polls following Sunday’s national election—deepening political uncertainty as the country faces a critical trade deadline with the United States.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito needed 50 seats to retain control of the 248-member chamber. However, exit polls suggest they may secure only 32 to 51 seats. Some broadcasters predicted as few as 41-43 seats, putting the coalition at risk of its worst electoral performance since it formed in 1999.

While the upper house election doesn’t directly determine Ishiba’s position, the result increases pressure on his minority government, which already lost control of the more powerful lower house in October. That defeat left his administration vulnerable to no-confidence motions and calls from within his own party to step down.

Speaking shortly after polls closed, Ishiba acknowledged the poor showing, stating he “solemnly” accepted the “harsh result,” but affirmed he would remain in office. “We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations with the United States,” he said. “It is only natural to devote our complete dedication and energy to realizing our national interests.”

Japan faces an August 1 deadline to finalize a trade deal with the United States or risk heavy tariffs in its largest export market.

Meanwhile, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is projected to win 18 to 30 seats—up to an eight-seat gain from the 22 it previously held.

The far-right Sanseito party has emerged as a surprise force in the election. Once considered fringe, Sanseito is now forecast to win 10-15 seats, up from just one. Founded on YouTube and initially known for promoting conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 pandemic, the party has tapped into voter dissatisfaction with mainstream politics. Its nationalist “Japanese First” rhetoric and opposition to immigration appear to have struck a chord with segments of the electorate.

Opposition parties overall appear to have gained momentum by championing tax cuts and tighter immigration controls. With inflation and rising food prices—especially rice—impacting households, the LDP’s message of fiscal restraint failed to resonate.

“Polls show that most households want a cut to the consumption tax to address inflation, something that the LDP opposes,” said David Boling of the Eurasia Group. “Opposition parties seized on it and hammered that message home.”

The LDP, wary of unnerving the government bond market, has argued for fiscal responsibility in the face of Japan’s staggering public debt—the world’s largest.

Sanseito’s rise echoes trends seen in far-right parties abroad, such as Germany’s AfD and Reform UK, though it remains to be seen whether it can sustain its momentum or convert upper house gains into broader political power. Currently, the party holds just three seats in the lower house.

Public sentiment around immigration also appears to be shifting, despite foreign residents still making up only about 3% of Japan’s population. The country recorded a record 3.8 million foreign-born residents last year, and booming tourism has increased the visibility of foreigners nationwide.

“I’m in graduate school, and there are no Japanese around me—only foreigners,” said 25-year-old voter Yu Nagai, who cast his ballot for Sanseito in Tokyo’s Shinjuku ward. “When I look at how money is spent on foreigners, I feel Japanese people are being overlooked.”

With the coalition’s hold on power weakening and international negotiations on the line, Japan enters a period of heightened political volatility—and the full implications of Sunday’s vote are only beginning to unfold.