South Korea’s Shrinking Army Faces Population Crisis And Rising Regional Threats

 

South Korea’s birth rate has been falling for much of the past decade, and now the demographic crunch is taking a toll on the nation’s military. A new Defense Ministry report shows troop numbers have plunged by 20% in the past six years, largely due to the shrinking pool of young men and a rapidly aging population.

As of July, South Korea’s armed forces counted 450,000 personnel—down from 563,000 in 2019. The report cited “complex factors” for the decline, including fewer men applying for officer roles due to concerns over “soldier treatment.” While it didn’t elaborate, past surveys have pointed to notoriously harsh conditions.

“If the number of standing army members continues to decline, there can be difficulties in securing elite manpower and limits in operating equipment,” the report warned.

The drop comes at a sensitive moment. North Korea has dispatched tens of thousands of troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, raising fears of military technology transfers between Moscow and Pyongyang. Meanwhile, the North continues to threaten Seoul with nuclear destruction if attacked.

North Korea’s Edge—and Weaknesses
On paper, North Korea enjoys certain advantages: up to 1.3 million active personnel—nearly triple South Korea’s numbers—and far longer average service terms, which build unit cohesion. Its fertility rate of 1.77 is also more than double South Korea’s record-low 0.75.

Yet North Korea faces its own population challenges, with birth rates dipping after the pandemic. To fill gaps, Pyongyang has increased female recruitment, with women making up as much as 20% of the armed forces in some sectors.

South Korea, by contrast, does not conscript women. Female volunteers account for just 3.6% of the force, a point of contention among some men who argue conscription harms their career prospects.

A Shift Toward Technology Over Numbers
Some analysts suggest expanding conscription to women, but others argue that Seoul should focus on technology and training rather than sheer manpower. South Korea already spends significantly more on defense than the North and frequently trains with allies like the United States.

Ukraine’s use of drones, cyberwarfare, and affordable tech against a larger force offers a model. Experts say AI-assisted and autonomous systems could help offset declining troop numbers, though they caution that human soldiers remain irreplaceable in combat.

Still, a cultural shift may be necessary. Recruitment for professional long-term roles has fallen in recent years, and high-profile hazing and abuse scandals have damaged the military’s reputation.

In response, the government has eased some rules, such as allowing conscripts limited phone use, and created alternative service options. But experts warn more must be done to improve welfare, morale, and the overall image of military service.

By the 2040s, the Defense Ministry projects maintaining even 350,000 troops will be difficult without structural reform. As one national security expert put it: “We need to optimize manpower now—before it’s too late.”