Shocking Upset in Bolivia: Centrist Rodrigo Paz Forces Runoff Against Ex-President Quiroga

Bolivia is headed for an unprecedented presidential runoff after Sunday’s vote produced a stunning upset: centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz, a relative dark horse, surged ahead of the right-wing favorites but fell short of outright victory, according to early results.

Paz, a former mayor who has pitched himself as a moderate alternative, drew 32.8% of the vote with 91% of ballots counted. He will now face former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who came in second with 26.4%, in a decisive October 19 showdown.

To win outright, a candidate needed more than 50% of the vote—or 40% with at least a 10-point lead.

The outcome delivered a crushing blow to the once-dominant Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party, which under ex-President Evo Morales reigned over Bolivian politics for nearly two decades. Morales, who rode the “pink tide” of leftist leaders into power in 2006, watched his party collapse at the polls. MAS’s official candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, limped into sixth place with just 3.2%, while Senate president Andrónico Rodríguez managed only 8%.

The result shocked many Bolivians, who had been led by opinion polls to believe the race would be a duel between Quiroga and multimillionaire businessman Samuel Doria Medina. Instead, Medina suffered his fourth failed presidential bid, telling crestfallen supporters Sunday night, “I wanted to serve Bolivia as president, and it hasn’t been possible. I have no regrets.”

Paz’s surprising lead highlights voter hesitation toward returning to the same right-wing establishment Morales ousted nearly 20 years ago. Positioning himself as a middle path, Paz has rejected both MAS’s failures and the hardline pledges of conservatives. He has criticized proposals to sell off Bolivia’s vast lithium reserves to foreign corporations and to seek billions in loans from the International Monetary Fund.

At stake in the runoff is the future direction of this landlocked nation of 12 million, now grappling with a crippling fuel shortage, double-digit inflation, and a scarcity of U.S. dollars.