Trump-Biden Debate Could Shake Up The Race—Changing 16% Of Voters’ Minds, New Poll Says

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Former President Donald Trump is up four points over President Joe Biden in a new poll released on the eve of the first presidential debate, but 16% of voters could change their preference based on what happens in Thursday’s debate, underscoring the high stakes of the face-off.

KEY FACTS

Trump leads Biden 49% to 45% in the Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, a slight shift from the group’s May poll that showed Biden leading by one point.

Trump leads by an even wider margin, six points, with third-party candidates, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, on the ballot.

Nearly three-quarters, 73%, of voters say they’ll watch Thursday’s debate between Biden and Trump Thursday on CNN—and the debate could serve as a rare opportunity to shake up the election, especially among Kennedy supporters who may prove crucial in such a tight race.


Some 13% of Biden supporters, 12% of Trump supporters and 32% who say they’ll vote for Kennedy (who won’t be on the debate stage) said it could change their minds about who they’ll cast their ballots for in November.

TANGENT

Biden’s campaign has repeatedly attacked Trump as a threat to democracy and highlighted his legal woes in the weeks leading up to the debate, while touting Biden’s economic achievements and accusing Trump of floating policies that cater to the wealthy class. Trump and his allies, meanwhile, are teeing him up for a can’t-lose debate by baselessly suggesting that if Biden appears energetic, it means he is hyped up on drugs. Trump’s allies have also predicted CNN will be biased toward Biden, deploying Trump’s frequent strategy of demonizing his political enemies and journalists who cover him in an unflattering manner.

BIG NUMBER

1.3. That’s how many points Trump leads Biden by nationally, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average.

WHEN IS THE TRUMP-BIDEN DEBATE?

Trump and Biden will participate in a 90-minute debate Thursday at 9 p.m. on CNN moderated by CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.

KEY BACKGROUND

A string of polls showed Biden with a slight lead in the wake of Trump’s conviction in Manhattan last month on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records—though Trump still consistently leads in polls of the seven crucial battleground states. Trump is set to be sentenced in the case on July 11, and a majority of his backers say prison time (an unlikely outcome, according to legal experts) wouldn’t impact their vote, while 36% said they would be more likely to vote for him and 4% said they would be less likely to vote for him.

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