Hamas Leader Sinwar Confident In Prolonged Conflict With Israel
Hamas aims to survive, which would be a significant victory for the group. Sinwar likely thinks Hamas can endure while Israel’s international standing weakens due to the ongoing war in Gaza, which has resulted in thousands of civilian casualties.
A senior Biden administration official summed it up bluntly: “He believes he’s winning.”
For US negotiators working towards a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, this is a discouraging outlook. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the families of American hostages held in Gaza during a meeting in Tel Aviv that the fate of the latest proposal hinges on Sinwar's decision.
While the US is urging those with influence over Hamas to push the group towards accepting the deal, Blinken emphasized that the ultimate decision lies with Sinwar.
“There are those who have influence, but influence is one thing; making a decision is another. I don’t think anyone other than the Hamas leadership in Gaza can make these decisions,” Blinken said. “That is what we are waiting on.”
If Sinwar believes Hamas can withstand the Israeli invasion, it suggests he does not yet feel enough pressure to agree to a ceasefire, despite the ongoing loss of Palestinian civilian lives.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Sinwar referred to these deaths as “necessary sacrifices” in messages reviewed by the paper. “We have the Israelis right where we want them,” Sinwar recently told Hamas’ political leadership in Qatar, according to one of the messages. The exact date of the message is unclear, but it indicates that Sinwar is pushing for the conflict to continue.
US officials have publicly portrayed Sinwar as indifferent to Palestinian civilian deaths, focused solely on his survival. “It should come as a shock to no one that Mr. Sinwar cares nothing about the lives of innocent Palestinians caught in this war, a war he started. And it should surprise no one that a man like Mr. Sinwar would actually see advantage in it,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
Sinwar, one of the key planners of the October 7 attack, remains elusive in Gaza’s extensive tunnel network, frequently moving and possibly surrounded by hostages as human shields, according to officials. The US intelligence community has struggled to track him, delaying communication and negotiations.
Both Sinwar and Hamas’ top military official, Mohammed Deif, are still alive. Even if Israel has killed 15,000 Hamas militants, as claimed, it means that about half of the group’s estimated fighting force remains active.
Sinwar, a long-time figure in Hamas, has been instrumental in building up the group's military wing and forging new ties with regional Arab powers as its civilian and political leader. He was elected to Hamas’ main decision-making body, the Politburo, in 2017 as the political leader of Hamas in Gaza, and has since become its de facto leader, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Regional polling, though flawed, indicated that Hamas had become unpopular in Gaza before the October 7 attack. Some analysts suggest the group may have launched the operation to boost domestic support.
Blinken stated that Hamas’ response to the ceasefire proposal would reveal its priorities. “We await the answer from Hamas, and that will speak volumes about what they want and who they are looking after,” Blinken said. “Are they looking after one guy who may be safe for now while the people he claims to represent continue to suffer in a crossfire of his own making? Or will he do what’s necessary to move towards ending the suffering and bringing real security to both Israelis and Palestinians?”
Comments
Post a Comment