The Elephant In The Room: China's Watchful Eye On The Putin-Kim Alliance

As Russian President Vladimir Putin cruised through the crowd-lined streets of Pyongyang in a luxury Mercedes-Benz alongside his North Korean host Kim Jong Un, their most crucial partner was watching from a distance in Beijing.

Five years ago, Xi Jinping was treated to the same open-top ride when he became the first Chinese leader to visit Pyongyang in 14 years. At the time, Xi and Kim vowed to strengthen ties and deepen cooperation, but their language was tame compared to the "breakthrough" new partnership between Kim and Putin.

In a wide-ranging treaty covering political, trade, investment, and security cooperation, North Korea and Russia pledged to provide immediate military assistance if either is attacked. Putin claimed that Russia and North Korea had elevated their ties to a "new level." Kim, meanwhile, hailed the new "alliance" as a "watershed moment" in bilateral relations.

This landmark defense pact between the two nuclear-armed regimes rattled the United States and its Asian allies. Japan voiced "grave concerns" about Putin's openness to military technology cooperation with Pyongyang. South Korea responded with an emergency national security meeting, considering the possibility of sending arms to Ukraine.

In contrast, China's reaction, as the main political and economic supporter of both Russia and North Korea, was notably muted. A spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the treaty, labeling it a bilateral matter between Russia and North Korea. However, analysts suggest that beneath this official reticence, China is likely watching warily.

The deepening ties between these two unpredictable leaders pose new uncertainties for Xi, who needs peace and stability in Northeast Asia to manage domestic challenges, particularly a slowing economy. Beijing is concerned that Moscow's assistance to Pyongyang—especially in military technology—might further enable and embolden the erratic Kim regime, which has rapidly accelerated its nuclear weapons and missile programs.

"When it comes to the North Korea issue, China aims to control the situation and prevent escalation, but it also does not want North Korea to completely collapse," said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor of Chinese politics at the City University of Hong Kong. A collapse could potentially allow the US to extend its influence right to China's doorstep.

Russia, previously aligned with China on North Korea, now risks upsetting this balance due to its desperate need for North Korean support in its ongoing war in Ukraine. According to a US statement in February, Russia has received over 10,000 shipping containers from North Korea, equivalent to 260,000 metric tons of munitions or related materials. Both Russia and North Korea have denied these claims.

While the US has accused China of providing Russia with dual-use goods bolstering its military, Beijing has refrained from direct military assistance to Putin and avoided supporting Kim’s nuclear and missile programs. "If Putin provides more support to North Korea on nuclear issues, it will become more difficult for China to control the situation on the Korean Peninsula," Liu noted.

The mutual defense pact between Kim and Putin is reminiscent of a 1961 treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, which offered much weaker security assurances after the Soviet Union's collapse. North Korea's mutual defense treaty with China, also signed in 1961, remains in place after multiple renewals. The Sino-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance is China's only formal military alliance treaty, though Beijing is vague about its obligations under it.

It remains unclear what Russia and North Korea are willing and able to do for each other under their new defense pact. The treaty comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where Kim has intensified his rhetoric and abandoned a longstanding policy of seeking peaceful reunification with South Korea.

The political message of the pact, however, is clear. Driven by shared hostility towards the US and its allies, Russia and North Korea seek to undermine and provide an alternative to the Western-led global order—a goal shared by China. Putin, after meeting with Kim, railed against the "imperialist policy of the United States and its satellites."

A month earlier, Putin and Xi delivered a similar message during Putin's visit to Beijing. In a joint statement, they criticized the global security system dominated by US-backed military alliances and pledged to counter it together.

Western observers warn of a loose but growing coordination of interests among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, likened by a senior US military commander to a new "axis of evil." As Moscow and Pyongyang deepen their alliance, Beijing will be cautious to keep a distance, said Liu. "China certainly doesn’t want to be seen as part of a new Axis."

Despite Xi's absence, China was the elephant in the room during the Putin-Kim meeting. "Any such meeting will also include discussion of China," said Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford. "Russia knows full well that China does not want to be left out of any substantial negotiations involving North Korea, as China is far more important to North Korea compared to Russia."

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center, said China doesn't feel it can control the deepening engagement between Russia and North Korea. "But they do know that China plays an irreplaceable role for both Russia and North Korea," she added.

China remains the largest trade partner for both Russia and North Korea, providing a crucial lifeline to their heavily sanctioned economies. Beijing also offers significant political support and diplomatic cover. "China doesn't think that an alliance between Russia and North Korea would be a betrayal," said Liu. "Neither of the two countries has the capacity to betray China. They still need to rely on China despite their alliance."