Beryl 2024: Atlantic's First Hurricane Forms - Track Its Predicted Path

 Hurricane Beryl formed Saturday afternoon east of the Caribbean, becoming the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2024 season, and forecasters warn it could quickly strengthen into a Category 3 major hurricane as it barrels toward the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

 Beryl strengthened from a tropical storm as it packed maximum sustained winds of 75 mph as of Saturday afternoon, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane is traveling west at 22 mph, and is expected to turn into a “dangerous major hurricane” and reach the Windward Islands—a group of Caribbean islands including Martinique, Grenada and Dominica—by late Sunday or Monday, the NHC said.

NHC forecasters expect Beryl to bring heavy rain and winds, as well as a dangerous storm surge, with Barbados already facing a hurricane warning while hurricane watches are in effect for St Lucia, Granada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

By Monday night, AccuWeather meteorologists warn the hurricane could pick up enough strength to be classified as a Category 3 major hurricane (sustained winds of at least 111 mph), as it passes west of the Windward Islands, into the Caribbean Sea and toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Current models show the hurricane passing just south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

One factor helping the storm develop is below-normal wind shear for this time of year, reducing the disruptive winds typically present during the early summer that can stunt hurricane development, according to The Weather Channel.

Forecasters believe Beryl could be the first of up to two dozen named storms in the Atlantic over the hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30. Beryl follows Tropical Storm Alberto, which made landfall in northern Mexico last week, killing at least three people and bringing intense rain and flooding to Mexico and parts of southern Texas. Forecasters with NOAA last month issued the administration’s most dire hurricane outlook since it began issuing hurricane season predictions in 1998, warning there could be up to 25 named storms over the course of the season. Of those storms, NOAA warned between eight and 13 could develop into hurricanes, with between four and seven strengthening into Category-3-plus major hurricanes, the result of low wind shear and above-average sea surface temperatures. AccuWeather, meanwhile, predicted an “explosive” hurricane season that could move at a “record-setting pace,” forecasting up to 25 named storms, including eight to 12 hurricanes and four to seven major ones. If those predictions hold up, this year would far outpace the average of just over 14 named storms observed over the past 30 years, as well as the 19 named storms seen last year.

Hurricane Beryl formed in a part of the Atlantic that typically does not experience early season storm development. Only seven named tropical storms have formed in that area (south of 20 degrees north and east of 60 degrees west) in nearly 175 years before July 4, according to AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno.