Hezbollah Leader's Fiery Speech Puts Cyprus In The Crosshairs

In a fiery speech this week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened Cyprus, warning that the small, divided Mediterranean island could become a target if it aids Israel in a potential war between the Lebanese militant group and Israel.

"Cyprus will be part of this war too," Nasrallah declared in a televised address on Wednesday, cautioning against opening airports and bases to Israeli forces. This came just a day after Israel suggested that an "all-out war" with Lebanon was looming.

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides promptly denied any involvement in the conflict. “The statements are not pleasant, but they do not reflect reality. Cyprus is not involved in any war operations,” he asserted, emphasizing ongoing communication with Lebanese and Iranian governments.

The European Union swiftly supported Cyprus, with EU spokesperson Peter Stano stating, “Since Cyprus is a member state of the EU, any threat against it is a threat against the EU.”

Neighboring Greece also showed solidarity, condemning the threats as a blatant violation of the United Nations Charter.

In a bid to mitigate the situation, Lebanon's Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib contacted his Cypriot counterpart, Constantinos Kombos, to reaffirm Lebanon’s appreciation for Cyprus's role in regional stability.

While experts suggest a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah remains unlikely, the mention of Cyprus introduces a new dimension to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, potentially drawing an EU nation into the fray. Cyprus’s strategic ties with Israel could put it at risk.

Cyprus: A Geopolitical Fault Line

Cyprus, located in the Eastern Mediterranean, is closer to Middle Eastern conflicts than to European power centers. The island, twice the size of Delaware, is divided into a Greek-speaking southern region, the Republic of Cyprus, and a Turkish-speaking northern region, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The international community predominantly recognizes the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus, the part targeted by Nasrallah's threats.

A member of the EU but not NATO, Cyprus houses about 920,000 people, with Nicosia as its capital. Diplomatic relations with Israel began in 1960, but it wasn’t until the late 1990s that ties improved, largely due to mutual economic interests and security concerns.

Israel has used Cypriot territory for military training, noting the similarities between Cypriot and Lebanese terrain. Joint military exercises have been a regular feature, with the latest drills taking place in May 2023.

Cyprus’s Stance on the Gaza Conflict

Cyprus has made efforts to distance itself from the Gaza war, emphasizing its humanitarian contributions. President Christodoulides stated, “The Republic of Cyprus is not part of the problem. The Republic of Cyprus is part of the solution.”

In March, Cyprus began facilitating aid shipments to Gaza, and it has criticized actions by Israel that hinder humanitarian efforts. Despite its stance, Cyprus remains wary of being drawn into the conflict.

The Broader Implications

Hezbollah's threats against Cyprus highlight the complex geopolitics of the region. Any involvement of Cyprus in military operations against Hezbollah would effectively expand the Gaza war into the EU, a scenario both Israel and Hezbollah seem keen to avoid.

Experts believe that while both sides have military plans, an all-out war is not in their interest. Lina Khatib, of the Chatham House think tank, noted that neither Israel nor Hezbollah benefits from such escalation, and the US is unlikely to let Israel face a two-front war alone, which could draw in other Iran-backed actors and even Iran itself.

As tensions simmer, the focus remains on diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation and maintain regional stability.