Russian Fighter Jet Defends ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker In NATO Waters

Until last week, a covert network of ships transporting Russian oil—commonly referred to as the "shadow fleet"—operated with no overt ties to the Kremlin. That changed dramatically when Russia deployed a fighter jet to defend one of the tankers, signaling an aggressive shift in strategy.

On May 13, Estonian authorities attempted to inspect the Jaguar, an unflagged oil tanker recently sanctioned by the United Kingdom. In response, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet flew into Estonian airspace and buzzed the tanker, according to Estonia’s Defense Forces. Estonian forces ultimately escorted the Jaguar out of their territorial waters.

“This is something entirely new,” said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna during a NATO meeting in Turkey. “Russia has now officially connected itself to the shadow fleet.”

Analysts agree the incident marks a shift in Moscow's posture. “This appears to be a major escalation in Kremlin policy,” said Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based think tank.

The shadow fleet—estimated to comprise hundreds of aging, poorly maintained tankers—has long been a method for Russia to skirt Western oil sanctions. These vessels often sail under murky ownership structures and are believed to have caused environmental damage and even harmed critical undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, though Russia denies involvement.

The Jaguar, formerly known as Argent, is one such ship. A video recorded from the tanker’s bridge shows Estonian authorities issuing commands for the ship to alter its course, while Estonian military vessels and aircraft surround it. The footage, apparently edited, was posted online by Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the Kremlin-backed outlet RT. CNN verified key details of the video.

Later in the footage, a lone Russian Su-35 fighter jet can be seen flying ahead of the tanker. In response, Portuguese F-16s stationed in Estonia as part of NATO's air patrol mission were scrambled to intercept and monitor the Russian aircraft.

The presence of NATO forces in the region has grown since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. According to Arnold of RUSI, Moscow may be testing NATO’s resolve. “The Kremlin is likely trying to provoke a reaction—hoping to make NATO nations second-guess escalating over a single ship,” he said.

Some within the alliance are reportedly uneasy. “Do we really want to risk a broader confrontation with Russia over one tanker?” one NATO insider reportedly asked.

For Estonia, however, the violation of its airspace confirms that sanctions are working. “This proves that monitoring and sanctioning the shadow fleet is effective and must continue,” the Estonian Defense Forces said in a statement.

Attempts to contact the Jaguar's registered owner were unsuccessful. The Russian Ministry of Defense also declined to comment, while the Kremlin has consistently avoided addressing accusations about its shadow fleet operations.

In January, NATO launched “Baltic Sentry,” a joint initiative to increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea following a string of undersea infrastructure incidents.

Colonel Martin O’Donnell, a NATO spokesman, called the recent encounter “a reaction to Baltic Sentry,” and said, “Russia’s destabilizing behavior will not prevent us from upholding maritime security and freedom of navigation.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced Friday that a new sanctions package targeting Russia’s shadow fleet—estimated to operate up to 300 ships in the Baltic—could be passed as early as Tuesday. This follows President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to join talks with Ukraine in Turkey last week.

In a possible retaliatory move, Russia detained the Green Admire, a Greek-owned tanker, as it passed through Russian waters Sunday on a route approved by Estonia, Finland, and Russia. Estonia’s foreign minister shared the incident on X (formerly Twitter). CNN has reached out to the vessel’s owner and the Russian foreign ministry, but has yet to receive a response.

Since June of last year, Estonian authorities have conducted over 450 inspections in the Baltic Sea, including in the Gulf of Finland—one of the key maritime routes for Russian exports.

As tensions rise, NATO finds itself walking a tightrope—determined to confront Russian aggression without triggering broader conflict.