Can Ramaphosa Save U.S.-South Africa Ties?

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is set for a pivotal meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday—one that could either heal or further damage already strained relations between the two nations.

Ramaphosa is hoping his visit will help resolve a diplomatic standoff that saw the Trump administration cancel aid to South Africa and prompted the expulsion of the South African ambassador to Washington. But back home, concerns are rising that the meeting could take a disastrous turn—much like the infamous Oval Office confrontation between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this year.

The stakes are high. There’s growing fear that South Africa could lose some of its U.S. trade privileges if tensions continue to escalate.

Ramaphosa’s visit comes shortly after 59 white South Africans were granted refugee status in the U.S., sparking further controversy. Trump, along with his close ally Elon Musk—who was born in South Africa—has claimed that white South Africans are being persecuted. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that prioritizing white South Africans for resettlement serves American interests, arguing they are “easier to vet” and “a persecuted minority.”

While Rubio did not deny race may play a role in the refugee policy, he maintained that white South Africans face persecution.

The Trump administration has also been highly critical of South Africa’s recent land expropriation law, which allows the government to seize land without compensation in certain cases, in an effort to redress historical injustices. Under apartheid, which ended in the 1990s, Black South Africans were forcibly removed from their land. Today, despite making up over 80% of the population, they own only around 4% of private land. Meanwhile, white South Africans—who comprise less than 8% of the population—still control 72% of agricultural land.

Trump has accused the South African government of targeting white farmers for land seizures, even suggesting that a "white genocide" is underway—claims that South African officials have firmly rejected. Police Minister Senzo Mchunu stated there’s no evidence to support such accusations and urged the public to stop linking farm attacks to race.

Adding to the tension, Trump has openly opposed South Africa’s genocide case against U.S. ally Israel at the International Court of Justice.

Ramaphosa’s office says the meeting will cover “bilateral, regional, and global issues of mutual interest.” Analysts warn that the encounter could be a turning point for U.S.-South Africa relations.

The U.S. is South Africa’s second-largest trading partner, and the country is one of the biggest beneficiaries of a U.S. trade agreement offering duty-free access to American markets for sub-Saharan nations. South Africa exports two-thirds of its agricultural goods to the U.S. under that deal—but it’s now under threat, as some U.S. lawmakers push to revoke those benefits during this year’s review.

A Diplomatic Tightrope

South African researcher Neo Letswalo has described the upcoming White House talks as a “make-or-break” moment that will require masterful diplomacy from Ramaphosa.

He recalled the heated exchange in February between Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukraine’s Zelensky, warning that “for at least the next five years, the Oval Office is a tricky place to be.”

Still, Letswalo believes Ramaphosa will remain composed and focused on clearing up “misunderstandings” about South Africa within the Trump administration.

Christopher Afoke Isike, a professor of African politics at the University of Pretoria, is optimistic that Ramaphosa’s business background might help him connect with Trump.

“Given that both are businessman-presidents, there could be common ground,” Isike said.

Ramaphosa is also reportedly offering an olive branch in the form of a potential Starlink licensing deal. His spokesperson confirmed that South Africa has held talks with the Elon Musk-owned satellite internet provider about operating in the country.

The South African government says “reframing bilateral, economic, and commercial relations” is the main focus of the visit.

“We want to come out of the United States with a really good trade deal,” Ramaphosa told reporters before departing.

What Could Go Wrong?

Letswalo warns that talks could collapse if the White House issues unreasonable demands.

“A dealbreaker would be if Washington pressures Pretoria to withdraw the Land Expropriation Act or drop its Gaza case,” he said. “It will be interesting to see how President Ramaphosa balances his firm stance on national sovereignty with maintaining a functional relationship with the U.S.”

That balancing act could be the toughest test of Ramaphosa’s presidency yet, according to André Duvenhage, a political science professor at North-West University.

“This could be the single biggest challenge Ramaphosa has faced during his time in office,” he said.