Donald Trump Jr. Joins Prediction Market Kalshi
Donald Trump Jr. tweeted Monday that he joined prediction-based market Kalshi—which allows people to bet on future events like election results and presidential actions—as a strategic adviser, lauding the betting platform for what he suggested has a better sense of political trends than traditional media.
Key Facts
Trump Jr. claimed in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that he and his family used Kalshi on election night “to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media,” adding he “immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission.”
Kalshi said in a post on X confirming Trump Jr.’s role that his use of the market to determine election results before the media “proved what we’ve always believed - prediction markets are the fastest, most powerful way to uncover truth.”
Ahead of the election, Kalshi predicted Trump had about a 55% chance of victory, and it began showing in October that Trump had better odds of winning than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump Jr. also cited Kalshi’s lawsuit against President Joe Biden’s administration for the right to offer election betting and the fact that it was the first legal prediction market in the U.S. as reasons he wanted to join as a strategic adviser.
Crucial Quote
Trump Jr. ended the tweet announcing his new role with: “Now, time to trade on whether Biden is going to pardon Fauci and Liz Cheney 🤣”
What Is Kalshi?
Kalshi was founded in 2018 after two people working in finance found there was “no straightforward way for people to trade directly on event outcomes,” despite many financial decisions in the U.S. being made based on predictions of future events. In 2020, the market became the first fully regulated financial exchange in the U.S. for event contracts, and it became fully regulated for election betting in 2024. The New York-based predictions market was sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in November 2023 over allowing bets on Senate and House results and concerns it could risk the integrity of elections, but Kalshi countersued and a lower court ruled in favor of the market, which argued letting users bet on elections could provide accurate data for election forecasting.
Key Background
Trump Jr. has served as the executive vice president of the Trump Organization and, most recently, has reportedly been key in building his father’s Cabinet. He also hosts a podcast, “Triggered with Don Jr.,” and announced in November after the election he does not plan to have a role in father’s upcoming administration, but will join 1789 Capital, an investment firm that focuses on companies and products that appeal to conservative audiences, The New York Times reported.
What Kind Of Bets Does Kalshi Offer?
Kalshi allows bets on things including who Biden will pardon before leaving office, how many executive orders Trump will issue on his first day in office, which companies will donate to Trump’s inauguration event and more. Not all are focused on politics, though, with other offerings including when bitcoin will reach a value of $150,000 and how much it will snow in New York City in January.
Comments
Post a Comment