Russia Redirects Military Strategy To Libya After Assad's Ouster

 In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s removal as Syrian leader, Russia has intensified its military activity in Libya, positioning the North African nation as a key hub for projecting influence in the Mediterranean and beyond.

Shifting Operations to Libya

Russia has conducted over a flight a day since mid-December, using massive Antonov AN-124 transport planes and Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft to ferry equipment from its Hmeimim airbase in Syria to the al-Khadim base near Benghazi in eastern Libya. This shift appears to be a strategic response to Assad’s ouster, as Moscow seeks to preserve its Mediterranean foothold and support its military activities across Africa.

Recent satellite imagery shows advanced air defense systems being moved out of Syria, coinciding with reports of a large-scale Russian military withdrawal from the country. Some of this equipment is believed to have been relocated to Libya, where Russia has maintained a presence for years through its support of General Khalifa Haftar.

Deepening Ties in Africa

By bolstering its foothold in Libya, Russia is positioning itself to sustain its growing military operations across Africa. Flights from Libya to Bamako, Mali, indicate a logistical pivot, with Libya replacing Syria as a hub for Russia’s Africa Corps operations. This follows Russia’s increasing influence in Mali and other African nations, often stepping into the vacuum left by waning Western influence.

Analysts have noted a spike in Russian flights from Syria, Russia, and Belarus to Libya, signaling a concerted effort to solidify its position in the region. A secure compound for Russian personnel near al-Khadim suggests long-term intentions for logistical support across Africa.

Mediterranean Strategy

The strategic importance of Libya for Russia extends to the Mediterranean. With its Black Sea fleet restricted due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Moscow’s naval ambitions hinge on securing access to Mediterranean ports. Haftar’s control of key coastal areas makes Libya an attractive alternative to Russia’s base in Tartus, Syria.

However, relying on Haftar poses risks. The 81-year-old leader’s control is limited to half of Libya, and his shifting allegiances could jeopardize Russia’s plans. Unlike in Syria, Russia lacks a formal agreement guaranteeing its presence in Libya, leaving it vulnerable to Haftar’s demands or political changes.

NATO Concerns

Russia’s increased activity in Libya has raised alarms in NATO capitals. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto expressed concerns over the proximity of Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean, while NATO has reportedly begun monitoring Libyan ports such as Tobruk and Benghazi.

Despite these concerns, Russia has avoided deploying naval vessels to Libyan ports, likely to prevent provoking a strong NATO response prematurely.

Challenges of the Shift

Libya offers logistical hurdles as a substitute for Syria. Russian transport planes require Turkish airspace to reach Libya, giving Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a potential bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow.

In Syria, the new leadership under interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has expressed ambivalence toward Russia’s military presence. While they have not demanded an outright withdrawal, the future of Russian bases like Hmeimim and Tartus remains uncertain.

Strategic Setback and Adaptation

Assad’s removal marks a significant blow to Russian ambitions in the region, casting doubt on Moscow’s reliability as a security partner. African nations, such as Mali and Niger, are reportedly reconsidering their alliances with Russia in light of its failure to intervene on Assad’s behalf.

Still, experts argue that while Russia’s logistical network has been disrupted, it remains functional. Moscow’s operations have become more costly and uncertain, but its broader military strategy in Africa and the Mediterranean is far from derailed.

Russia’s pivot to Libya highlights its determination to adapt and maintain influence, even in the face of significant geopolitical setbacks.