Tunisia's Controversial Election: A President’s Path To Power Amid Political Turmoil

Tunisians went to the polls on Sunday in an election widely expected to hand President Kais Saied a second term, as many of his key opponents, including one candidate challenging him, remain behind bars.

At 66, President Saied faces little resistance in his bid for reelection, five years after he rose to power on a wave of anti-establishment sentiment, and three years after suspending parliament and granting himself greater authority through a revised constitution.

This marks Tunisia’s third presidential election since the 2011 revolution that ousted dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, making Tunisia the first nation to topple an autocrat during the Arab Spring. Other nations like Egypt, Libya, and Yemen soon followed suit.

While international observers praised Tunisia's previous elections as democratic, concerns have mounted this year following a series of arrests and actions by an election authority appointed by Saied. Opposition parties have even called for a boycott, questioning the election's fairness.

The Stakes

Tunisia was once hailed as the Arab Spring’s lone success story. While other countries descended into chaos, Tunisia enshrined a democratic constitution and its civil society groups were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering political compromise.

However, the country’s leaders struggled to revive its faltering economy, and political infighting combined with violence and terrorism have further destabilized the nation.

Amid these challenges, Saied, a political outsider at the time, won his first term in 2019, promising to reshape Tunisia by empowering young people and local governments. His victory was seen as a pushback against the political establishment.

This year's election serves as a referendum on Saied’s transformation of Tunisia’s democratic system. Despite criticism from pro-democracy groups and opposition parties who accuse him of orchestrating a coup, many of his supporters remain loyal. However, Saied’s lack of affiliation with any political party leaves questions about how broad his support truly is.

A Political Shake-up

This election is the first presidential race since Saied drastically changed Tunisia’s political landscape in July 2021. He declared a state of emergency, fired the prime minister, suspended parliament, and rewrote the constitution to consolidate power. These moves enraged many pro-democracy groups and opposition parties.

Despite this backlash, a year later, voters approved his new constitution in a low-turnout referendum. Since then, Saied's government has cracked down on his critics, including journalists, politicians, and civil society leaders, many of whom have been charged with threatening state security or breaking Tunisia’s controversial anti-fake news law.

Economic difficulties and widespread apathy have led to low voter turnout in the parliamentary and local elections of 2022 and 2023, casting further doubt on the democratic health of the country.

The Candidates

While 17 candidates initially sought to challenge Saied, only three were approved by the election authority: Saied himself, veteran politician Zouhair Maghzaoui, and businessman Ayachi Zammel.

Maghzaoui has criticized Saied's economic policies and the recent political arrests but remains unpopular with opposition parties for his support of Saied's consolidation of power. Zammel, meanwhile, faces legal challenges after being convicted of voter fraud related to his campaign.

Many prominent opposition figures have been blocked from running, including Rached Ghannouchi, the 83-year-old leader of Tunisia's most organized political party, Ennahda. Ghannouchi has been imprisoned since last year after speaking out against Saied. Another notable figure, Abir Moussi, the right-wing president of the Free Destourian Party, was also jailed after criticizing the president.

Opposition groups, including the National Salvation Front, a coalition of secular and Islamist parties, have called for a boycott, denouncing the election as a sham.

Economic Woes

Tunisia’s economy remains in dire straits, with unemployment reaching 16%, one of the highest rates in the region. Young Tunisians are particularly affected, adding to the sense of disillusionment with the country’s leadership.

Negotiations for a $1.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund have stalled, as Saied refuses to accept conditions like cutting public wages and restructuring state-owned companies. The IMF also seeks the removal of subsidies for essential items like electricity, flour, and fuel, which would be deeply unpopular among the public.

Investors are hesitant to commit to Tunisia due to political instability and a lack of economic clarity, compounding the nation’s financial challenges.

Migration Crisis

The economic crisis has also fueled a surge in migration, with increasing numbers of Tunisians attempting to reach Europe. Saied’s administration has taken a hardline approach, particularly against migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, leading to a series of crackdowns.

In 2023, Saied accused these migrants of being part of a conspiracy to change Tunisia’s demographics, sparking violence against migrant communities and aggressive action by authorities.

International Relations

Under Saied’s leadership, Tunisia has balanced maintaining its relationships with traditional Western allies while forging new ties. Saied’s populist rhetoric emphasizes sovereignty, and he has resisted becoming Europe’s "border guard" despite European attempts to collaborate on managing Mediterranean migration.

Tunisia has strengthened its relations with countries like Iran and China, with Chinese investments helping to fund infrastructure projects. Russia has also sent observers for this election, while Western election monitors have been notably absent.

Despite these new partnerships, Tunisia's main trade relationships remain with European nations, who continue to work closely with Saied on migration issues.

As Tunisia’s economy stagnates and its democracy fades, this election will be pivotal in determining the country’s future direction. The question remains whether Saied can hold onto his power amid growing discontent and international scrutiny.