Last-Minute Diplomatic Push In Middle East Faces Skepticism As U.S. Election Nears

U.S. officials remain skeptical that a final diplomatic push in the Middle East this week will secure a ceasefire in Gaza before Tuesday’s presidential election. Sources suggest that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be waiting to see who the next U.S. president will be before committing to de-escalation.

However, there is cautious optimism in Lebanon, where hopes are higher for a deal to end cross-border violence between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, expressed optimism on Thursday, telling Lebanese media that a ceasefire “within the next few hours or days” could be within reach.

Any step toward easing regional tensions would be welcomed by the White House. Nonetheless, the belief remains strong within the Biden administration that Netanyahu is stalling until after the U.S. elections. High-ranking officials are in the region to explore ways to halt the violence. CIA Director Bill Burns was in Cairo on Thursday for discussions with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, while U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein and White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk are in Israel to discuss hostages, ceasefire efforts, and Iran under the U.S. approach of "de-escalation backed by deterrence."

Encouragement around a potential Israel-Lebanon deal has been boosted in recent days, and Hochstein is expected to continue these talks this week. Despite this, with the U.S. election drawing closer, hopes of ending the Gaza conflict before the polls are slim, making it likely that the war will cast a shadow over the final stretch of the U.S. campaign. On Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris faced heckling at a campaign event, with protesters calling for a Gaza ceasefire. “We all want the war in Gaza to end and get the hostages out,” Harris responded, while maintaining the need for open discussions on the issue.

American officials hope to make headway on both fronts before the election but remain realistic about the chances of significant breakthroughs. In Cairo, CIA Director Burns discussed a new proposal involving a month-long Gaza ceasefire in exchange for hostages' release. U.S. officials are cautiously optimistic that the new approach may restart talks, particularly following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. However, obstacles remain, such as the number and distribution of hostages and Palestinian prisoners to be included in the agreement.

Qatar and Egypt are in discussions with Hamas, but sources caution that a limited truce would be shorter than the initially proposed six-week phase. A diplomat familiar with the discussions noted that Hamas wants clear confirmation of Israeli approval for any plan presented.

In Lebanon, U.S. officials aim to mediate an end to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. After speaking with Hochstein on Thursday, Mikati expressed hope for a potential ceasefire within days. Both Israel and the White House have downplayed circulating drafts on ceasefire agreements, with an Israeli government spokesperson and the White House clarifying that media reports do not reflect the current status of talks.

As Middle Eastern tensions mount, American officials are pushing for diplomatic solutions, yet they understand the complexities and uncertainties still at play.