Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania

 

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on October 9, 2024 in Reading, Pennsylvania.

Former President Donald Trump is maintaining a sizable advantage in Arizona while Vice President Kamala Harris holds an edge in Pennsylvania, according to new swing state polling by The New York Times that suggest the race remains incredibly tight just weeks before Election Day.

Key Facts

Pennsylvania: Harris holds a four-point advantage (50% to 47%, but closer to four points when not rounded up) in a Saturday pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls and also has the same lead in a Wednesday Quinnipiac poll, though Friday’s Wall Street Journal Poll gives Trump a one-point advantage (46% to 45%).

Arizona: Trump leads Harris (51% to 46%) in the Times’ poll with a lead nearly unchanged from last month, and also leads by two points (49% to 47%) in an Emerson poll. Harris leads Trump (47% to 45%) in the latest Wall Street Journal Poll.

Michigan: Harris leads Trump (47% to 45%) in a Wall Street Journal poll that includes third-party candidates released Friday, a change from the Thursday Emerson poll that shows Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47%) in a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday—though Harris is still up 0.8 in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris holds a 1-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris by two points (48% to 46%) in the Quinnipiac poll, and the two are tied at 49% in the Emerson poll,. Harris is up 0.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Georgia: Harris leads narrowly (46% to 45%) in the Wall Street Journal poll, but Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% in the Emerson poll—nearly equal to Trump’s 1-point average FiveThirtyEight lead—after Emerson’s September survey showed him up three points (50% to 47%).

Nevada: The Journal poll has Trump up by 5 points. Harris is up one point (48% to 47%) in the Emerson survey. Harris leads by 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump has a 1-point lead (46% to 45%) in the Wall Street Journal’s poll, a flip from Harris’ 1-point lead in Emerson’s September survey. Trump is also ahead in North Carolina by one point according to FiveThirtyEight.

Big Number

2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by Real Clear Politics’ national polling average, while FiveThirtyEight’s average shows her up by 2.5 points.

Key Background

Harris became the nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.