Trump Campaign Thinks Abortion Ballot Measures Might Actually Help Him
Key Facts
Ten states will have ballot measures in the general election that ask voters whether abortion rights should be protected in their state, including the battleground states of Arizona, Florida and Nevada.
Trump campaign political director James Blair told The Post it’s possible those ballot measures “are favorable to Republicans” because voters can use the ballot measure to back abortion rights and then base their decision for president on other factors, in line with Trump’s public claims that he wants to leave abortion up to the states.
Democrats have historically benefited at the ballot box from the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022, as the widespread popularity of abortion remaining legal has led to the left winning many races where abortion has become a central issue—and Democrats are trying to use this year’s measures to boost turnout among their base.
Polling suggests voters are buying Trump’s claims, however, with more voters supporting abortion ballot measures than Harris—suggesting voters could split their vote and back abortion measures and Trump.
A September Fox News poll in Arizona found Harris trailed Trump by two points (47% to 49%) in the state even as its abortion ballot measure got 72% support, for instance, while a September New York Times/Siena College poll of the state put Trump four points above Harris (49% to 45%) while 58% of Arizonans supported the ballot measure.
A September poll by the Hill/Emerson College similarly found Trump leading in Florida while the state’s abortion ballot measure received 55% support, while an August Fox News poll in Nevada found that while Harris beat Trump 48% to 46% with voters in the state, the abortion ballot measure was still much more popular, with 75% support.
Surprising Fact
Polling shows Trump is leading in battleground states even as respondents trust Harris more on handling abortion. A 56% majority of Fox News’ Arizona poll respondents said they trusted Harris to do a better job on abortion—though the respondents still preferred Trump overall—as did 53% of Arizona respondents in the Times/Siena College poll. Fox News’ polling in August found 58% of voters from Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina preferred Harris on abortion, but only 48% overall said they’d support her (compared with 47% who backed Trump).
Tangent
Politico reports abortion ballot measures may also impact voters in subsequent elections, noting that Democrats are reporting pro-abortion rights voters in Michigan—where abortion was legalized via ballot measure in 2022—aren’t as fired up this year because they think their reproductive rights are safe. A KFF poll found in July that 60% of Michigan women believe abortion’s legality is now a “settled” issue in their state, with Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow telling Politico there’s a “false sense of comfort” among voters that abortion is no longer under threat. Democratic candidates have had to argue to voters that their rights could still be taken away if Trump wins, Politico reports, as candidates claim Trump would enact national restrictions if elected that would override any state measures.
Contra
Democrats have continued to insist they expect their candidates will be buoyed by abortion ballot measures. They hope it will help them in the presidential election and key Senate races, as Democrats face close races in states with abortion ballot measures like Montana, Florida and Arizona. “Wherever they’ve been on the ballot, we’ve had a significant turnout of folks who care deeply about reproductive freedom,” Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., who leads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told The Post. “Folks who turn out understand that the Republican candidates tend to be diametrically opposed to that — and so they vote for the referendum and they vote for the Democratic candidate.”
What To Watch For
Harris and Trump are still neck-and-neck in the polls. While polling has largely been in support of abortion ballot measures coming out in favor of reproductive rights—and no ballot measure since the Supreme Court’s ruling has yet come out against abortion rights—it remains to be seen how the measures in this year’s election will fare. Florida’s ballot measure will require 60% of the vote in order to pass, meaning it will have to clear a particularly high bar compared with other states that only need a simple majority.
What We Don’t Know
What Trump would actually do on abortion if elected. Though the ex-president has repeatedly said he does not support a national abortion ban, Democrats have been highly skeptical. Anti-abortion advocates have reframed their rhetoric to push for “national minimum standards” on abortion rather than “bans”—phrasing restrictions differently to get around the unpopularity of abortion bans—and the Trump campaign has not yet responded to a request for comment on if he supports a “national minimum standard.” Anti-abortion groups have continued to push for Trump to enact national restrictions even as the ex-president has said he wants to leave it up to the states, and while the GOP’s national platform doesn’t call for a national ban, it does call for giving constitutional rights to fetuses, which would ban abortion by default.
Key Background
The Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022 has made abortion into a key electoral issue, with Democrats relying on abortion rights as a tool to galvanize the party’s base. Abortion ballot measures have been a key part of that strategy, emerging as the primary way for abortion rights advocates to harness public support and protect access even in states with Republican leadership. Republicans have downplayed their anti-abortion views in elections that have taken place since the Supreme Court’s decision, with candidates editing their websites and toning down anti-abortion rhetoric so as to not alienate voters who support the procedure remaining legal. Trump said in April he supported abortion being left up to states after previously suggesting he could endorse a 15-week national ban, and has continued to insist he won’t restrict abortion and tried to downplay the issue. His running mate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, has backed a national abortion ban in the past, but has more recently toned down his views, saying he supports Trump’s view of leaving the issue to the states and falsely claiming at Tuesday’s vice presidential debate that he never supported a national ban. The Harris campaign has continued to insist voters should not take Trump at his word, believing the ex-president would still listen to his anti-abortion base and take steps to ban or restrict the procedure if elected.
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