Republicans Now 5 Seats Away From House Control—But Key Races Too Close To Call

 

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 03: Members of the House of Representatives participate in the vote for Speaker on the first day of the 118th Congress in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol Building on January 03, 2023 in Washington, DC. Today members of the 118th Congress will be sworn-in and the House of Representatives will elect a new Speaker of the House.

Republicans are on the brink of maintaining their House majority—and winning control of Washington for at least the next two years under a unified government—with 20 races left to be called as of Sunday morning.

Key Facts

The Associated Press has called 415 of 435 House races since polls closed on Tuesday, and so far, Republicans have clinched 213 seats to Democrats’ 202—though neither party has won the 218 needed to win a majority.

Democrats lead in the vote-count in 11 races with pending results and Republicans in nine, meaning the GOP is on track to maintain its majority unless Democrats take the lead in more seats, which is possible.

Many of the still-uncalled seats are in the western U.S. or in swing districts with tight races, including Maine, Ohio and two districts in California where the Democratic candidates are leading by less than a percentage point, and in districts in Iowa, Arizona and Colorado where Republicans are leading by less than one point, according to the Associated Press.

Republican candidates flipped two Pennsylvania districts and a seat in Michigan, and lead in Democrat-held seats in Alaska and Colorado.

While Democrats flipped seats in New York, they are trailing vulnerable GOP incumbents in toss-up districts in California and Arizona, but lead in Republican-held seats in California and Oregon.

Do Democrats Have A Chance At Taking The House?

It appears unlikely, considering 16 wins in uncalled races are needed but Democrats only lead in 11 of them. Even so, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said in a Thursday statement to wait for results and that the race isn’t over yet. Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., wrote in a letter Thursday that Republicans expect to hold the majority, according to the Associated Press. Republicans have a 98% chance of retaining control of the House, according to the Election Betting Odds tool, which tracks odds across several major betting platforms.

Key Background

The House now holds enormous importance for President-elect Donald Trump’s ability to legislate when he takes office after Republicans won a majority in the Senate on Tuesday. If the GOP retains control, it would give them unified control of government—but if Democrats win the majority, they will be able to stall some of Trump’s legislative agenda. Republicans won a tight majority in the House in 2022, claiming 222 seats, including several competitive seats in Arizona, California, New York, Virginia and Nebraska. Democrats secured a Senate majority in 2021, later solidifying that number in 2023. The period of a divided Congress since has been marred by Republican infighting and lessened productivity—partly due to Congress’ partisan split and partly because of the GOP’s narrow majority, which allows a tiny number of lawmakers to control the fate of legislation. In October 2023, Republicans and Democrats voted for the first ouster of the House speaker in history, driving out then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., an action led by hard-right Trump ally Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. The move was highly disruptive because of the extensive voting processes and the search for a new speaker. That year, the House also struggled to pass legislation, passing 27 bills after voting 724 times. That’s fewer bills passed than any other term since 2013, The New York Times reported, citing research from the Bipartisan Policy Center. Congress narrowly avoided several government shutdowns over the past two years. With this election, Republicans were predicted to take control of the House by a slim margin of 30 seats or less, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Tangent

Gaetz was reelected to his House seat in Florida with 66.3% of the vote as of 8:30 p.m. EST, the AP called. He beat Democrat Gay Valimont, continuing a spell of success even amid controversial political attacks and his leading the ousting of McCarthy in 2023.

Which House Results Were Historic?

Several races made history on Nov. 5. Democrat Sarah McBride was elected to a Delaware House seat, becoming the first openly transgender Congress member with the win. Republican Julie Fedorchak won her North Dakota’s sole House seat, becoming the first woman elected to the House in North Dakota, and Democrat Julie Johnson became the first openly gay woman to represent Texas in the House. Democrat Yassamin Ansari won her seat in Arizona and became the first Iranian American elected to the U.S. House.