U.S. May See A Healthy Thanksgiving—But Covid, RSV Could Spike Before Christmas, CDC Warns

 

Tourists wearing protective respiratory masks on Feb. 2, 2020.

Covid-19 positive test rates have hit a five-year Thanksgiving low going into the first holiday of the winter season, and respiratory disease levels of the flu and RSV are also at pre-pandemic lows, but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns that trend is likely to reverse before Christmas comes around.

Key Facts

The weekly test positivity rate for COVID in the week of Nov. 9, the latest data available, was 3.6%, down significantly compared to the same weeks in 2023 (10.1%), 2022 (6.8%), 2021 (7%) and 2020 (13.6%).

The positivity rate dropped between the first and second weeks of November this year, from 4.7% to 3.6%, the first time in five years the rate hasn't risen between those two weeks headed into Thanksgiving.

Weekly deaths from Covid are also at an all-time low—250 people's deaths were attributed to the illness in the week of Nov. 9, according to the CDC, the lowest week since tracking began in March 2020.

Wastewater monitoring data from the CDC also shows transmission of Covid-19 was "low” in the first week of November (the second-lowest measurement on a five-point scale where "minimal" is the lowest level of viral activity) and influenza and RSV levels are minimal.

Covid transmission rates are low or minimal in most states with the exception of New Mexico (very high); Montana, Wyoming and South Dakota (high); and Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Nebraska, Idaho and Nevada (moderate).

RSV rates are increasing in southern, central and eastern states and emergency department visits and hospitalizations for young children are on the rise in the same areas.

What To Watch For

On Wednesday, the CDC warned it expects to see an increase in Covid and RSV levels in the coming weeks as large gatherings, travel and more time indoors allow disease to spread more easily person-to-person. The CDC recommends opening windows and doors for ventilation, wearing masks in crowded areas, practicing regular handwashing and being up-to-date on Covid and flu vaccinations to avoid getting sick. RSV vaccines are recommended for all adults ages 75 and older, those between the ages of 60 and 75 who are at increased risk and pregnant women.

Tangent

Thanksgiving travel is expected to finally rebound to pre-pandemic highs, according to AAA. Almost 2 million more people are expected to travel this year than last, with 79.9 million people venturing more than 50 miles away from home between the Tuesday before and Monday after the holiday. Car travel is expected to overtake pre-pandemic levels and air travel is expected to hit a new record for the holiday.