Kamala Harris Poised To Reenergize Pro-Choice Voters

Kamala Harris’s path to strengthening her support may lie in consolidating voters who agree with her on abortion. As the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Harris has proven to be a more compelling and effective advocate for abortion rights than President Joe Biden, whose support among pro-choice voters has waned since his 2020 election.

Biden's diminishing support from pro-choice voters stems partly from concerns about his age and his less passionate stance on abortion, especially in the face of other pressing issues like inflation. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump’s efforts to minimize the importance of the abortion debate have also contributed to this shift.

With Harris now leading the Democratic ticket, the party sees an opportunity to refocus voters on abortion rights and regain the support that has drifted from Biden. “She is able to talk about it in a way that, quite frankly, Biden was not,” said Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, reflecting a common sentiment within the party. Harris’s ability to articulate the issue passionately and clearly sets her apart.

Biden's lackluster performance among pro-choice voters in recent polls represents a significant change from the past two national elections. In 2020, Biden secured nearly three-fourths of voters who supported legal abortion, according to exit polls. In 2022, Democratic House candidates maintained similar levels of support from pro-choice voters, with the share of voters supporting legal abortion rising from 51% in 2020 to 60% in 2022 following the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision.

However, recent national polls show Biden's support among pro-choice voters has dropped significantly. A merge of results from three Marquette Law School polls this year found Biden winning just under two-thirds of voters who believe abortion should be legal in most cases. Other polls, including those by CNN, Quinnipiac University, and Yahoo News/YouGov, show even lower support for Biden among pro-choice voters.

State-level polls echo this trend. In key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, Biden’s support among pro-choice voters is well below the levels seen in 2020 and 2022. For instance, a recent YouGov survey found that Biden did not exceed 59% support among pro-choice voters in any major battleground state.

One reason for Biden's decline with pro-choice voters is that they share broader concerns about his age and economic policies. Even among pro-choice voters, many believe Biden is too old to serve as president and are divided on whether he or Trump is better for the economy.

Additionally, Biden’s personal history as a devout Catholic who initially criticized the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision has made him an uneasy champion for abortion rights. In contrast, Harris has shown no such ambivalence. She has taken a leading role in defending abortion rights since the Dobbs decision, frequently speaking out against abortion bans and rallying support on college campuses and in red states.

Harris’s passionate and relatable defense of abortion rights, combined with her ability to connect the issue to broader rights and liberties, makes her a stronger messenger than Biden. Her framing of the abortion debate as part of a larger conservative effort to roll back women's rights resonates particularly with older women who remember the gains made by the women’s movement and younger women disillusioned by the current state of reproductive rights.

Harris’s effectiveness in discussing abortion could also help mobilize younger female voters who have lost faith in Biden’s ability to restore reproductive rights. John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, notes that younger women have become resigned to the new state-by-state reality of abortion laws, but Harris’s fervor could reignite their passion for the issue.

While Harris may not restore the overwhelming levels of support Democrats enjoyed in 2020 and 2022, her ability to passionately advocate for abortion rights and connect with voters could reenergize the Democratic base. Republicans, however, remain confident that other issues like inflation, immigration, and crime will overshadow abortion in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump's stance on abortion, advocating for states to decide their own laws, has made some pro-choice voters less fearful of his potential second term. However, Democrats and advocacy groups believe that highlighting the extreme anti-abortion positions of Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, could sway voters. A KFF poll this spring found that nearly three-fourths of women nationwide believe Trump would sign a nationwide abortion ban into law if reelected.

Harris's ability to deliver the Democratic case on abortion more effectively than Biden and energize pro-choice voters could be crucial in the 2024 election. While raising the relevance of abortion rights alone may not be enough to overcome all of Trump’s advantages, it is a vital step for Harris in building a winning coalition.