High Voter Turnout In France’s Pivotal Snap Election

Voters are turning out in high numbers across France to participate in the second round of a snap election called by President Emmanuel Macron. This election could result in Macron losing significant support from his centrist allies in parliament and being forced into an awkward partnership with the far right for the remaining three years of his presidential term.

According to data from the French Interior Ministry, 26.63% of French voters had cast their ballots by noon Sunday (6 a.m. ET) – a turnout level not seen since 1981.

In the first round of voting last Sunday, the far-right National Rally (RN), led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella and under the influence of party veteran Marine Le Pen, emerged as a powerful contender. The RN secured 33% of the popular vote, marking a significant shift in French politics. The newly-formed left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), followed with 28%, while Macron’s Ensemble alliance lagged behind with 21%.

The possibility of a far-right government, the first since the Vichy regime during World War II, has galvanized Ensemble and the NFP into action. After a week of political negotiations, hundreds of candidates withdrew from specific races to prevent the RN from gaining an absolute majority.

Voting began at 8 a.m. local time (2 a.m. ET) as France embarked on electing the 577 members of its National Assembly, where 289 seats are required for a party to hold an absolute majority. In the outgoing parliament, Macron’s alliance held only 250 seats and needed support from other parties to pass laws.

To qualify for the second round, candidates must secure more than 12.5% of the votes in the first round. This usually results in a head-to-head runoff between two candidates. However, this election has seen a record number of three-way races in over 300 seats, highlighting France’s deepening political polarization. To avoid splitting the anti-far-right vote, more than 200 candidates from Macron’s alliance and the NFP agreed to step aside in the second round.

While the RN's strong performance in the first round suggests it could more than triple its 88 seats from the previous parliament, it is uncertain whether it will achieve an absolute majority. Although it is customary for the president to appoint a prime minister from the largest party, Bardella has stated he will refuse to form a minority government. 

In that scenario, Macron might need to appoint a prime minister from the hard left or form a technocratic government from other areas.

Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, France appears headed for a period of political turmoil, with Macron unable to call another parliamentary election for at least a year.

The campaign has already seen violence. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin reported that 51 candidates and campaigners had been assaulted on the campaign trail, with some requiring hospitalization.

This vote is being held three years earlier than scheduled. France was not due for parliamentary elections until 2027, but Macron called the snap election – the first by a French leader since 1997 – after his party’s poor performance against the RN in last month’s European Parliament elections. 

Although European election results do not directly impact domestic politics, Macron stated he could not ignore the voters' message and wanted to clarify the political situation. Some argue that, with the possibility of the RN winning both the presidency and parliament in 2027, Macron wanted to expose it to government responsibilities now, hoping it would lose its appeal once in office. If the RN refuses to form a minority government, Macron’s strategy could backfire.

An RN-led government would have significant implications for France and Europe. Its spending plans, including cutting value-added tax on electricity, fuel, and other energy products, have alarmed financial markets and could clash with Brussels' restrictive spending laws. 

On the international stage, an RN-led government would further Europe’s rightward shift, challenging the center’s unity on issues like support for Ukraine, migration, and climate change.

Standing between the RN and an absolute majority is the NFP, which includes both radical figures like Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed and moderate leaders like Raphael Gluckmann of Place Publique.

While Macron’s Ensemble allies are determined to prevent the RN from gaining power, they have refused to collaborate with or endorse candidates from France Unbowed. Gabriel Attal, Macron’s protege and the outgoing prime minister, has vowed never to form an alliance with Melenchon.

Polls will close at 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET) on Sunday, with full results expected early Monday.