100 Days Of Economic Turmoil: How Trump’s Second Term Sparked A Storm

Every election season, Americans are reminded of a long-standing political truth: The president doesn’t control the economy. Historians, journalists, and political analysts alike repeat the adage, noting that gas prices and grocery bills often sway voters, even though such factors are largely out of any one politician’s hands.

That old saying isn’t wrong — it’s notoriously difficult for a single president to dramatically improve the economy on their own. But what we’re witnessing now is the flip side: a president who may not be able to fix the economy overnight, but can certainly break it.

As of Tuesday, President Donald Trump has been in office for 100 days of his second term. And in just over three months, he’s launched an economic agenda so severe that historians may soon compare its impact not to policy debates, but to historic disasters. If his tariffs remain in effect, their damage could rival or even exceed the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trump ran on a bold promise to “immediately bring down prices, starting on Day One.” But beyond signing an executive order instructing federal agencies to “deliver emergency price relief,” there’s been little action — and even fewer results.

His only significant economic move so far? A sweeping set of tariffs that function as a massive tax hike on American consumers. This strategy has isolated the U.S. as the central aggressor in a rapidly escalating global trade war — one in which we’re lobbing economic grenades at allies and adversaries alike.

Global markets are already reacting. In a trend economists now call the “sell America” trade, foreign investors are pulling their money out of U.S. assets — a dramatic vote of no-confidence. The result: trillions of dollars in market value have vanished.

Despite this, the headline economic numbers remain somewhat stable. Unemployment is still low, and inflation has cooled from its 2022 peak of 9.1% to around 2.5%. But these improvements began under President Biden, and the current calm may not last.

Economists warn that any short-term economic boost from consumer spending — driven by fears of rising prices — is likely temporary. Over the longer term, nearly every major forecaster agrees that the odds of a recession have grown. Estimates range from a 50/50 chance to as high as 70%. Prediction market Kalshi currently pegs the likelihood of a U.S. recession at 57%.

Uncertainty is paralyzing businesses. Companies don’t know whether Trump’s erratic tariff policy will stick or shift next week. Consumer confidence, which remained surprisingly strong even during record inflation under Biden, is now faltering.

Even worse for Trump, his economic approach fails to address the cost-of-living crisis — the very issue voters said drove them to re-elect him. Instead, the public is growing frustrated. A new CNN poll by SSRS found that 59% of Americans believe Trump’s policies have worsened the economy — up from 51% in March.

Tariffs, in particular, are wildly unpopular. Price hikes are being felt across the country, with 60% of U.S. adults reporting that Trump’s agenda has raised the cost of living in their community. Just 12% believe his policies have lowered prices.

Those poll numbers echo deeper national anxieties. The University of Michigan’s April survey found consumer sentiment at its fourth-lowest point since 1952. Inflation expectations hit their highest level in over 40 years.

While feelings aren’t data in the strictest sense, they matter. When Americans expect the economy to worsen, they spend less — and that spending pullback slows growth. Nearly 70% of Americans now believe a recession is at least somewhat likely within the next year.

That caution is already affecting real-world behavior. Airlines are cutting back on flights as summer demand dips. Major companies are scaling back earnings forecasts or scrapping them entirely, blaming tariff uncertainty.

Trade activity is taking a hit too. According to Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen, ocean shipments from China to the U.S. have dropped more than 60% industry-wide since the U.S. imposed new 145% tariffs on Chinese imports.

In an April 2 speech dubbed “Liberation Day,” Trump promised a rebirth of American manufacturing. But outside his core MAGA base, few see that vision as realistic — or even desirable. Still, Trump did make one prediction that has come true:

“This will be an entirely different country in a short period of time,” he said. “It’ll be something, the whole world will be talking about it.”

He was right. The world is talking — but not in celebration.

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