Ecuador Prepares For High-Stakes Runoff Amid Crime Crisis And Political Uncertainty
Ecuadorians will head to the polls this Sunday to choose their next president in a critical runoff election. The choice is between incumbent President Daniel Noboa, a conservative businessman with a hardline stance on crime, and leftist lawyer Luisa González, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa.
The outcome will shape the country’s response to an escalating security crisis driven by the cocaine trade, as well as a fragile economy teetering on collapse.
A Country Under Siege
Once a beacon of stability in Latin America, Ecuador has become one of the region’s most violent nations. In 2023, it registered the highest homicide rate in Latin America, driven by drug cartels and gang warfare. While the rate has dipped slightly in 2024, violence remains rampant, with criminal groups adapting in the face of government crackdowns.
Noboa, who rose to power in a 2023 special election, has adopted a “mano dura” (iron-fisted) approach. His administration has declared multiple states of emergency, launched military operations in prisons, and even labeled the internal conflict as a war against terrorism.
One of the more controversial moves under Noboa’s leadership has been forging partnerships with foreign entities to combat organized crime. He announced a security alliance with Erik Prince, founder of the former Blackwater private military company, and proposed allowing U.S. military forces to operate from a new naval base — a sharp reversal of the 2008 constitutional ban on foreign military presence.
These foreign entanglements have sparked heated debate, with González fiercely opposing foreign involvement in domestic security matters.
Noboa: CEO-In-Chief?
The American-born, Harvard-educated Noboa stunned many with his victory in 2023. He quickly made waves by deploying the military to regain control of gang-infested prisons and pushing for expanded presidential powers through a national referendum.
His administration, however, has faced criticism for overreach — especially after security forces stormed the Mexican embassy to arrest a former vice president accused of corruption. The move broke diplomatic norms and led Mexico to sever ties with Ecuador.
“He thinks that the government should run like his companies — top-down, fast, and without checks,” said Jean Paul Pinto, a political analyst in Quito. “But that’s not how a democracy works.”
On the economic front, Noboa has embraced populist-style policies like cash aid and debt relief for struggling farmers. Some analysts view this as a pivot to gain broader support ahead of the election.
González: Leftist Vision, With Limits
Running on a platform called “Revitalize Ecuador,” Luisa González promises to return to the social spending model of the Correa era. Her campaign highlights stronger public services and greater state control, especially in managing the country’s ailing energy infrastructure.
Despite her ties to Correa, González has taken pains to assert her independence, saying she leads the campaign and policy vision herself. “So who will rule? It’ll be Luisa,” she said in a recent interview.
On crime, González has proposed rebuilding state institutions, such as restoring the Ministry of Justice and reforming the agency that manages Ecuador’s dysfunctional prisons. Though she denies any intention to negotiate with gangs, some analysts suggest she may pursue a more diplomatic and preventative approach.
Still, others point out that her mentor’s record suggests she may also adopt a heavy-handed approach. “Correa was almost a proto-Bukele,” noted Will Freeman of the Council on Foreign Relations, referencing El Salvador’s authoritarian leader. “It could be pretty mano dura under González too, even if she’s not saying it outright.”
A Volatile Finish
With tensions high and both candidates previously casting doubt on the election process, Sunday’s result could lead to post-election unrest — especially if the outcome is close.
“Noboa has already said he’ll only concede if there are no signs of fraud,” said Freeman. “He made similar comments during the first round. It feels like he’s preparing the ground not to concede.”
González’s team was noncommittal when asked whether she would concede a narrow loss, with her campaign manager saying the candidate would respond to the result “when the time comes.”
Analysts warn that if either side refuses to accept the result, Ecuador could face strikes, legal battles, and deeper political instability. The country already finds itself in crisis — and Sunday’s vote could either open a path to recovery or deepen the uncertainty.
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