Kamala Harris Takes First Lead Over Trump In Election Betting Odds

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One betting site puts Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly ahead of former President Donald Trump.


For the first time since launching her presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday afternoon took the lead over former President Donald Trump in odds on a major election betting platform, as polls show her making gains on the former president in key swing states.

Key Facts

Harris moved ahead of Trump in odds on the PredictIt betting platform Wednesday afternoon, before moving into a tie shortly after 6 p.m. EDT and later retaking the lead.

Harris launched her campaign nearly two weeks ago, after President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid amid mounting pressure from Democratic lawmakers and donors to step aside due to concerns over his mental acuity.

Harris has closed in on Trump in betting odds as polls have shown her significantly cutting into the advantage Trump held over Biden both nationally and in key swing states—Harris led Trump nationally in four polls released this week.

Contra
Trump maintains a large lead over Harris on the Polymarket betting platform, with 56% odds compared to Harris’ 41%, though his lead there has also shrunk since Biden bowed out.

How Does Harris Poll Against Trump In Swing States?
Multiple recent polls show Harris neck-and-neck with Trump. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted last week found Harris leading Trump 53%-42% in Michigan, while a Fox News poll released last week found the two tied at 49%. Harris also held a 49%-47% lead over Trump in Wisconsin, according to the Morning Consult poll, though Fox News showed her trailing by one point. The Morning Consult poll also found the two were tied at 47% in Georgia, while Harris maintained a narrow 49%-47% lead in Arizona, led Trump 47%-45% in Nevada and trailed him 46%-48% in North Carolina.

News Peg
Harris’ campaign slammed Trump for comments he made on her race at the National Association of Black Journalists convention on Wednesday (Harris’ mother is from South India and her father is from Jamaica). Speaking at the event, Trump claimed Harris “was always of Indian heritage,” but later “became a Black person.” Trump’s claim, which follows a string of attacks on Harris based on her race, is not true—Harris has said throughout her three-decade career in politics that she is Black and of Indian descent. Following the conference, Harris campaign spokesperson Michael Tyler said Trump’s comments represented a “taste of the chaos and division that has been a hallmark of Trump’s MAGA rallies.”

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