Trump’s Ceasefire Gamble: Middle East Deal Overshadows NATO Summit

When President Donald Trump lands in the Netherlands on Tuesday for a pivotal NATO summit, he’ll arrive with a bold claim: that he’s brokered peace — at least temporarily — between two of the world’s most bitter enemies, Israel and Iran.

The last-minute ceasefire deal, negotiated with help from Qatar after a weekend of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, was meant to showcase Trump as a global peacemaker. But just hours before it was supposed to take effect, Israel accused Iran of launching missiles, vowing to retaliate “with force.” Tehran flatly denied any breach.

Leaving the White House for Europe, a visibly enraged Trump slammed both sides. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard they don’t know what the hell they’re doing,” he fumed. Though he insisted the truce remained intact, Trump was particularly critical of Israel, saying they responded to the ceasefire by unleashing “the biggest load of bombs we’ve seen.”

In a tense morning phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump was described by a White House official as “exceptionally firm and direct.” Shortly after takeoff aboard Air Force One, Trump posted on Truth Social that the truce was still in effect, claiming, “All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt.”

Trump is hoping the ceasefire — if it holds — will vindicate the controversial U.S. strikes and elevate his status as a master negotiator. European leaders, who were largely left out of the talks, had expressed concern that the strikes could escalate into a broader conflict. But Trump’s inner circle insists the bombing run made diplomacy possible.

“Congratulations to everyone!” Trump posted Monday night, declaring an end to what he called the “12-Day War.”

For Trump, the deal comes at a critical moment. With skepticism surrounding his foreign policy credentials, the former president seems eager to reassert his reputation as a dealmaker on the world stage. Yet the NATO summit in The Hague is shaping up as a study in contrast between Trump’s solo diplomacy and the alliance’s emphasis on unity and collective action.

The summit’s final statement — deliberately brief and noncontroversial — is expected to announce a new annual military spending target of 5% of GDP, a figure Trump has pushed aggressively. Ironically, Trump recently said he doesn’t believe the U.S. should have to meet that benchmark.

“They want this to be a good experience for President Trump — a warm pat on the back for the way he’s handled Israel and Iran, and a commitment to defense spending,” said Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, in a CNN interview.

On the way to the summit, Trump shared screenshots of messages from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, praising Trump’s strike on Iran as “truly extraordinary” and applauding the defense spending push. “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win,” Rutte reportedly wrote.

Trump is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines, but Zelensky won’t participate in the main event — a signal of how stalled Ukraine’s bid to join NATO remains under Trump’s leadership.

Meanwhile, divisions between Trump and European leaders over Ukraine policy continue to fester. Trump has shown little interest in expanding sanctions on Russia or approving fresh military aid for Kyiv, frustrating efforts to present a united front against Vladimir Putin. European diplomats even feared over the weekend that Trump might skip the summit altogether, prioritizing the Middle East crisis instead.

Inside the White House, aides had debated whether to attend. But by Monday afternoon, with the ceasefire in place, Trump decided to go — carrying what he sees as a foreign policy triumph in his pocket.

In previous administrations, such moments were seen as opportunities to rally allies. But Trump has never followed that playbook. He favors unilateralism and openly mocks multilateral diplomacy. “Iran doesn’t want to speak to Europe,” he told reporters Friday. “They want to speak to us.”

Just days earlier, he left the G7 summit in Canada prematurely rather than stay and coordinate on Iran, frustrating European leaders. Trump has long viewed institutions like NATO and the G7 as burdensome alliances designed to siphon U.S. resources.

His skepticism hasn’t softened. As he boarded Air Force One, Trump again refused to fully commit to NATO’s core principle — Article 5, the collective defense clause. “It depends on your definition,” he said. “There are numerous definitions of Article 5.”

Still, Trump’s hardline stance on defense spending has paid dividends. More NATO countries now meet their 2% minimum targets than when he first took office. But for Trump, it’s still not enough — especially with war raging in Ukraine.

Yet ironically, the escalating Middle East crisis may end up sidelining Europe’s war altogether — at least for now.

As Trump tries to claim the mantle of global peacemaker, his unconventional approach continues to leave allies scrambling, adversaries guessing, and the world watching.