GOP Tax Plan Adds $2.4 Trillion To Deficit, Millions To Lose Insurance, CBO Says

A sweeping tax cut and spending reduction package narrowly approved by House Republicans would add a staggering $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis released Wednesday.

The package, a key part of former President Donald Trump’s agenda, would also leave nearly 11 million more Americans without health insurance by 2034, driven largely by historic cuts to Medicaid, the CBO found.

The highly anticipated score complicates Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s task of drafting a Senate version of the legislation that could pass his divided conference. Some Senate Republicans are alarmed by the deficit impact and want even deeper spending cuts, while others balk at the severe reductions to safety net programs like Medicaid.

Billionaire Elon Musk also weighed in, amplifying criticism of the package. “I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore,” Musk posted on X Tuesday, calling the legislation a “massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill” that would “bankrupt America.”

The Senate began working on its own version this week, but any changes would need House approval. Thune aims to deliver a final bill to Trump’s desk by July 4.

The CBO’s report adds fuel to Democratic arguments that the legislation worsens the nation’s fiscal outlook while showering the wealthy with tax cuts. Trump and House GOP leaders are already trying to discredit the CBO’s findings, insisting the agency ignores the economic growth they claim would result from the tax breaks.

“Anybody who repeats CBO’s analysis is making those same mistakes,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said at a GOP press conference. He argued the bill would unleash “economic growth in this country like we haven’t seen in generations,” boosting workers’ wages and federal revenues.

The CBO said it would soon release an analysis accounting for potential economic growth—though such analyses rarely offset the full cost of big tax cuts.

Some Senate leaders are trying to dodge the deficit question by arguing that extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—which expires at the end of the year—should be considered a continuation of current policy, not a new deficit expense. But the CBO’s analysis, by law, counts tax cuts as new costs once they expire, highlighting a key tension in the debate.

The House bill would make permanent nearly all of the individual income tax cuts from the 2017 law. It also temporarily extends tax relief to certain seniors and tipped workers—an echo of Trump’s campaign promises—and restores business tax breaks like immediate write-offs for research and equipment.

To help pay for these tax cuts, the bill slashes spending on Medicaid and food stamps, two of the nation’s largest safety net programs. It imposes work requirements on Medicaid recipients and expands work mandates in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), leaving millions at risk of losing health coverage and food assistance.

Meanwhile, the package boosts funding for defense, border security, and immigration enforcement—all top Trump priorities.

According to the CBO, the House package would cut federal spending by $1.3 trillion over a decade but would reduce revenue by $3.7 trillion—a net deficit increase of $2.4 trillion. Independent analyses show that the tax breaks would disproportionately benefit the wealthy, while the poorest Americans would see their incomes drop after accounting for taxes and lost benefits, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The CBO estimates that by 2034, 10.9 million more people would be uninsured. That figure includes 7.8 million Americans losing coverage because of the Medicaid cuts and about 1.4 million immigrants with uncertain legal status who wouldn’t qualify for state-funded health programs. Others would lose coverage due to Affordable Care Act changes.

“This would be the biggest rollback in federal support for health care ever,” tweeted Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at the nonpartisan KFF.

Democrats were quick to seize on the report.

“It’s shocking House Republicans rushed to vote on this bill without an accounting from CBO on the millions of people who will lose their health care or the trillions of dollars it would add to the national debt,” said Rep. Frank Pallone Jr., top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

“The truth is, Republican leaders raced to pass this bill under cover of night because they didn’t want the American people—or even their own members—to know about its catastrophic consequences,” he added.