South Sudan On The Brink: Peace Deal Teeters As Tensions Explode

A fragile peace deal that ended years of bloodshed in South Sudan is at risk of unraveling, raising fears that the world's youngest nation—already one of the poorest—could plunge back into war.

South Sudan security forces sit with the coffin of General David Majur Dak, the commander of the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces, who was killed when a United Nations helicopter trying to evacuate people from Nasir came under attack by the White Army militia.

A History of Conflict and Fragile Peace

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after decades of struggle but has since struggled to maintain stability in its deeply divided, ethnically fragmented society. The country spiraled into civil war in 2013, followed by another eruption of violence three years later. A 2018 peace agreement brought a tenuous halt to the fighting, but recent events suggest that peace may not hold for much longer.

The Current Crisis: Arrests, Rebellion, and Foreign Troops

The government, a coalition led by President Salva Kiir and five vice presidents—including his longtime rival Riek Machar—has been thrown into turmoil following Machar’s arrest this week. His party, the SPLM/A-IO, declared on Thursday that his detention “effectively collapses the peace agreement.”

Tensions escalated further with the recent arrests of other SPLM/A-IO officials and the controversial deployment of Ugandan troops, invited by Kiir to aid the military against a local militia. The opposition condemned the move as “military aggression against civilians,” while Machar himself called Uganda’s intervention a violation of the peace accord in a letter to the UN Secretary-General.

South Sudan has never held a national election, and its current government exists solely due to the power-sharing deal struck between Kiir and Machar in 2018. That agreement ended a brutal civil war that claimed an estimated 400,000 lives.

Ethnic Divisions and Rising Violence

The country’s deep ethnic rifts remain a major fault line. Kiir belongs to the Dinka, the largest ethnic group, while Machar is a member of the Nuer, the second-largest. This divide has fueled unrest, including violent clashes this month in the town of Nasir between government forces and the Nuer militia known as the White Army. Dozens have reportedly been killed.

On Friday, authorities confirmed Machar’s arrest, accusing him of inciting the White Army to attack a military base and a UN helicopter. The militia denies any connection to Machar or his party.

Government spokesperson Michael Makuei accused Machar and his allies of “agitating rebellion” to disrupt upcoming elections and destabilize the nation. He warned that Machar and his supporters would be “brought to book.” The SPLM/A-IO has yet to respond to these allegations.

International Concern: Calls for Ceasefire and Evacuations

The international community is sounding the alarm. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that South Sudan is teetering “one step closer to collapse into civil war.” Western nations, including the U.S., U.K., and EU, have urged Kiir to release Machar and called for an immediate ceasefire.

Amid fears of worsening violence, the U.S. and U.K. embassies have advised their citizens to leave South Sudan immediately. Meanwhile, the African Union is dispatching a delegation to Juba in an effort to de-escalate tensions, and Kenya has also sent an envoy to mediate.

A Nation in Crisis

South Sudan remains in dire straits. The World Bank has warned that mismanagement, political infighting, and violence have worsened the humanitarian crisis. Over two-thirds of the population lives in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2.15 per day, despite the country’s oil wealth.

The crisis is further exacerbated by South Sudan’s role as a refuge for over half a million displaced people from war-torn neighbors like Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic.

The UN has described South Sudan as “a country on the edge,” facing multiple overlapping crises. “South Sudan may have fallen off the world’s radar,” Guterres cautioned, “but we cannot let the situation slip into the abyss.”

As tensions rise and uncertainty looms, the world watches anxiously, hoping that South Sudan can pull back from the brink before history repeats itself.