The Fall Of Marine Le Pen: A Political Earthquake Or A New Far-Right Dawn?

“It’s my political death they want,” Marine Le Pen warned in November—a prediction that has now come true in a dramatic turn of events. Yet, few took her words seriously at the time.

On Monday, the three-time French presidential candidate saw her ambitions crushed when a court banned her from public office for five years over embezzlement charges. The ruling sent shockwaves through French politics, knocking the far-right leader out of the 2027 presidential race.

However, rather than crippling the far right, this decision might do the opposite. It could fuel populist grievances, strengthen Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party, and finally sever its decades-long attachment to the Le Pen name—a name that has both propelled and burdened the movement.

CNN European affairs commentator Dominic Thomas weighed in on the ruling’s impact. “One should celebrate that a legal system independently delivered a verdict, but social media has created such distrust in leadership. Do people walk away feeling justice was served, or do they just feel an overwhelming sense of disgust?”

For RN supporters, the ruling reinforces their belief that the system is rigged against them. Le Pen has framed the decision as an attack on democracy itself, echoing former U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims of a “witch hunt.” Tech billionaire Elon Musk also chimed in, writing on X: “When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents.”

Le Pen’s allies quickly denounced the ruling as “judicial overreach” and “shameful.” Even some political rivals expressed concern. Prime Minister François Bayrou admitted he was “troubled” by the decision, while French Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin previously warned that barring Le Pen from elections would be “profoundly shocking.”

Enter Bardella: The Heir to the Throne

Despite the outrage, Le Pen’s political downfall could fast-track a transition already brewing within the RN. Her chosen successor, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, is now poised to take full control of the party she spent years reshaping.

Political analyst Dominique Moïsi suggests that, behind closed doors, some RN members might secretly welcome this change.

“In public, they will rage and denounce this ruling. But deep down, many might be relieved, thinking, ‘This is a younger candidate. He appeals to a broader audience. And—most importantly—he doesn’t carry the Le Pen name.’”

Le Pen, 56, appointed Bardella as party leader in 2022, officially ending the Le Pen family’s half-century reign. Charismatic and strategic, Bardella has helped distance the party from its controversial founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, while maintaining its nationalist core. His youth and media savvy have made him a formidable force—one who already polls as well as his mentor.

The Next Political Showdown

With Le Pen out of the picture, the door is now open for new contenders—whether from within the RN, such as her niece Marion Maréchal, or from rival conservative factions. Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, for instance, brings far more experience than the relatively green Bardella.

The question remains: Can Bardella sustain RN’s momentum without the Le Pen brand? According to pollster Antoine Bristielle, RN voters are among the most loyal in France. In the 2022 presidential election, they showed the highest turnout consistency compared to other parties.

“There’s loyalty to the Le Pen name, no doubt. But if she’s gone, does Bardella have what it takes to win a presidential election?” Bristielle asked.

Le Pen still has legal options. She can appeal her conviction to the Conseil Constitutionnel, which must consider both the law and France’s constitutional right to free elections. Until then, RN remains a powerful force in French politics. As the largest party in parliament, it could even push for a vote of no-confidence to bring down the government.

Whether this marks the end of Marine Le Pen’s era or the beginning of a new chapter for France’s far right remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: 2025 has delivered a double blow to the Le Pen dynasty—first with the death of Jean-Marie Le Pen in January, and now with Marine’s forced political exile.