How Joe Burrow's Injury Affects Fantasy Football: When To Draft Which Backups To Target And How To Treat WRs

 

Per Bengals coach Zac Taylor, quarterback Joe Burrow will miss "several weeks" of the preseason with a strained calf suffered in Thursday's practice. Backup quarterbacks Jake Browning and Trevor Siemian will take multi-day turns leading the offense. And then hopefully that's all we'll see of those guys.

The hope is that Burrow's calf strain doesn't linger and puts him back on the field at least one week before the Bengals' Week 1 game on Sept. 10 against the Browns. And if that's the case, he might be a little slow to acclimate, but by Week 3 against the Rams or Week 4 against the Titans, he should be back to ol' Joe.

You know, the guy who averaged 26.3 Fantasy points per game last year.

Where some folks see calamity, others see opportunity. Burrow's injury will cool off his popularity in drafts, so much so that we could see all of Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Justin Herbert go ahead of him.

And that's exactly what a smart Fantasy drafter wants.

On Wall Street they call it "buying the dip." It's when a commodity loses value for any reason but is bought with the expectation it regains that value eventually. If people pass on Burrow because of uncertainty about his calf, it provides a chance to get him a round or maybe two rounds later than when he was going.

For perspective, Burrow was the fourth quarterback off the board and carried an Average Draft Position of 28.02 in National Football Championship drafts between July 1 and 26. In seven drafts held on July 27 and 28, Burrow was the sixth quarterback off the board with an ADP of 37.86 -- nearly 10 picks later.

His ADP will only fall farther and farther until there's optimistic news.

That's one change involved in drafting Burrow -- target him a little later than you would have before the injury. What it really means is that Burrow will get picked in the same range as the aforementioned passers. The later you draft him in that group of four (Burrow, Fields, Jackson, Herbert), the better off you'll be. The calf injury shouldn't change his upside as one of a handful of quarterbacks who can average over 25 PPR points per game. 

The second change involved in drafting Burrow is to draft a second quarterback. We talk about this move when it comes to taking Tua Tagovailoa or Anthony Richardson because those guys are either one injury or a series of bad plays away from being benched in Fantasy. It's probably a smart move to think of Burrow similarly -- if he's slow to recover, you might feel better beginning your season with a healthier quarterback you can draft in Round 10-plus. Also, keeping the second quarterback even once Burrow is back makes sense in case he re-injures himself. 

I love the matchups in Weeks 1 and 2 for Geno Smith (Rams, Lions), Russell Wilson (Raiders, Commanders), Jared Goff (Chiefs, Seahawks), and even Richardson if he falls in your draft (Jaguars, Texans). Those would be the four passers I'd try to pair with Burrow in one-QB leagues. In two-QB leagues you might be best served to just target Siemian or Browning (whoever gets the nod) as a stop-gap. They should be available nine-plus rounds after you take Burrow.

What if we find out Burrow is sidelined for months, not weeks? Where you might draft Burrow would change, but the strategy would not -- just keep waiting to take Burrow at a great value and pair him with another quarterback to fill the gap if he's out to begin the year. Eventually he'll be back and hopefully he'll deliver.

Does this injury remove Ja'Marr Chase from early Round 1 consideration? Unless Burrow is for sure going to miss games, Chase is still an elite Fantasy receiver worth taking as high as No. 2 overall in full PPR and 10th overall in non-PPR. Elite receivers tend to overcome mediocre quarterback play so long as they keep getting targets.

Same thing for Tee Higgins? Pretty much. There have been some raging debates over Higgins versus Chris Olave versus Calvin Ridley. This could be enough to push Higgins down past those guys. If that's the case, then it's another example of buying the dip and getting a very good touchdown scorer at a depressed value.

And same thing for Joe Mixon? Very few Fantasy managers are excited to draft Mixon even though he's technically averaged over 15 PPR points per game in each of the past three seasons. Burrow's injury might just make a few more folks leery of him. Another solid dip-buying candidate, which is great since he's been a productive running back in the past and could be asked to shoulder more work for all of 2023.