Putin Rides High As Trump Reshapes US-Russia Relations Ahead Of Crucial Saudi Talks

Vladimir Putin is in a strong position ahead of pivotal US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, as efforts to end the Ukraine war take center stage. The Trump administration has effectively ended Putin’s international isolation, fractured Western unity on the conflict, and cast doubt on how far the US will go to defend Europe—a dramatic shift favoring Moscow over America’s traditional allies.

With conflicting statements from Trump aides on their European visit, concerns are mounting that the US president may strike a deal with Putin—one that could undermine Ukraine and a continent facing renewed threats from Russian expansionism. Alarming signals suggest that the US might sideline its European allies from key negotiations while simultaneously demanding their commitment to security guarantees and troop deployments. This prompted France to call an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday with top European leaders.

Adding to fears, Trump has hinted that Ukraine itself may not be fully included in negotiations critical to its survival. Speaking to reporters in Florida, he stated, “We’re moving along. We’re trying to get a peace with Russia, Ukraine, and we’re working very hard on it.” However, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on NBC’s Meet the Press that he would “never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine,” Trump offered only vague assurances of involvement.

Saudi Talks: A First Step, Says Rubio

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff will represent the US in the Saudi-hosted talks. Saudi Arabia, maintaining close ties with both Moscow and Trump’s team, is positioning itself as a key mediator.

Rubio described the meeting as a continuation of Trump’s recent phone call with Putin. “The next few weeks will determine if this is serious,” he told CBS’ Face the Nation on Sunday. “One phone call does not make peace. One phone call does not solve a war as complex as this one.”

Confusion deepened when Rubio contradicted Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, who had suggested that while Kyiv would be involved in talks, European nations wouldn’t. Rubio insisted that any real negotiations must include both Ukraine and European countries, given their critical role in sanctions and military support against Russia.

While Trump’s personal engagement with Putin raises hopes of a potential peace deal, it also sparks fears that the agreement may ultimately favor Russia, potentially legitimizing its invasion. Some realists acknowledge Ukraine may not reclaim all its lost territory, but critics argue Trump is conceding too much leverage too soon.

European Allies on Edge

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski called Trump’s direct outreach to Putin a “mistake,” arguing that it emboldens the Russian leader while demoralizing Ukraine. However, he acknowledged that Trump’s insistence on European troop deployments means EU nations will inevitably be drawn into the process.

Trump’s approach has already rattled NATO allies. A blistering attack on European democracy by Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference, coupled with his meeting with the leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party, alarmed European leaders. Additionally, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remarks in Brussels—stating that Europeans must “take ownership of their own security”—reinforced concerns that Trump is weakening NATO’s longstanding defense commitments.

All of this plays into Putin’s hands, signaling that his era of international isolation is over and that he may secure a deal that cements his territorial gains. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, described the situation bluntly to CNN: “It’s like Easter, Hanukkah, Christmas, and Vladimir Putin’s birthday all happening in one day.”

France Responds with Emergency Talks

The growing crisis in transatlantic relations prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to convene an urgent meeting with leaders from Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, alongside top EU and NATO officials. Macron’s move underscores European fears that Trump’s deviation from 80 years of post-World War II security policy could leave them vulnerable.

With years of underfunded defense budgets, many European nations find themselves unprepared for the security burdens Trump is demanding. Scaling up military spending will require painful trade-offs for governments already grappling with economic challenges.

Yet, some European leaders are adapting to Trump’s hardline stance. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, preparing for a meeting with Trump, indicated his willingness to send British troops to Ukraine as part of a peace deal. Writing in The Daily Telegraph, Starmer also called for increased European defense spending and a stronger NATO role—while acknowledging continued US support remains vital.

Saudi Arabia’s Rising Influence

The Saudi-hosted talks also reflect Riyadh’s growing clout in global affairs. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has positioned Saudi Arabia as a key diplomatic power, leveraging both soft and hard power initiatives—from investing in European sports leagues to securing the 2034 FIFA World Cup.

Trump’s admiration for strongman leaders suggests he sees Saudi Arabia as a pivotal partner. The kingdom’s role will also be crucial in another of Trump’s foreign policy ambitions: resolving the Israel-Gaza conflict. The US is trying to broker a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, but Riyadh insists such a move is impossible without a viable Palestinian state. Arab nations have also forcefully rejected Trump’s radical suggestion of relocating Palestinians en masse from Gaza, denouncing it as ethnic cleansing.

High Stakes for US Credibility

Trump’s unconventional diplomatic style carries immense risks. His desire to strike historic deals—whether with Putin on Ukraine or with regional powers in the Middle East—could either redefine global stability or dangerously compromise Western security interests.

Sikorski issued a stark warning in Munich: “The credibility of the United States depends on how this war in Ukraine ends—not just the Trump administration, but the United States itself.”

As talks unfold in Saudi Arabia, the world watches closely to see whether Trump’s high-stakes maneuvering will bring peace—or deepen geopolitical fractures that could reshape the global order.