Polls Reveal: Trump’s Hush Money Trial May Not Sway Voters, But Could Jeopardize His Election Chances

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 Former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial has done little to change public perception of the charges against Trump, according to polls taken before the trial convened in April and others conducted as it’s come to a close—with most voters saying the outcome of the case won’t affect their decisions at the ballot box in November.

 


The share of voters who believe Trump did something illegal by allegedly concealing hush money payments to cover up allegations of an extramarital affair was the same, 46%, in Quinnipiac polls released April 24, a week after Trump’s trial began, and on May 22.

The same set of polls found slightly more Trump voters in May (68%), versus April (62%), said a conviction wouldn’t change their voting decisions in November.

While surveys show the outcome of the case won’t affect the majority of respondents’ voting decisions, even the slightest shift in voter sentiment could threaten either Trump or President Joe Biden’s election chances as they’re polling within single digits of each other.

Yahoo/YouGov polls show a slight uptick, nine points, in the share of voters from March (38%) to May (47%) who said Trump committed a crime, yet a January survey by the same groups also found 47% believe Trump is guilty in the case.

A theme that’s also held throughout the course of the trial is that voters are largely split on whether they think he should be found guilty and whether they believe he will be found guilty, with a mid-April New York Times/Siena poll showing 46% say he should be found guilty and 37% say he shouldn’t.

Meanwhile, a May 14-21 CBS/YouGov poll found 52% believe he will probably or definitely be found guilty, while 48% believe he probably or definitely won’t be found guilty.

1.1%. That’s how much Trump leads Biden by nationally, according to RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker. On the same day in the lead-up to the 2020 election, Biden was up 5.3 points.


Closing arguments opened Tuesday in Trump’s Manhattan hush money case, which charges him with 34 felony counts of falsifying records of reimbursements made to his former lawyer Michael Cohen for the payments Cohen allegedly made to adult film star Stormy Daniels in exchange for her silence about an affair she said she had with Trump. Prosecutors claim Trump committed the crime, which is typically a misdemeanor, in order to sway the outcome of the 2016 presidential race in his favor. Jurors have heard direct testimony from both Daniels and Cohen, who claimed Trump was directly involved in the scheme and knew the reimbursements were fraudulently recorded as legal services. Trump has pleaded not guilty to the charges, denied the affair allegations and claimed, without evidence, the charges were brought at Biden’s behest to help improve his chances of winning in November.

Biden’s campaign held a press conference outside Trump’s trial Tuesday after largely avoiding any mentions of Trump’s legal woes in an apparent effort to avoid accusations it was attempting to influence the outcome of the cases. Actor Robert De Niro, who narrated a Biden campaign ad criticizing Trump that was released last week, spoke on Biden’s behalf alongside Jan. 6 police officers Michael Fanone and Harry Dunn.


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