Are Gas Prices Headed Skyward? Analysts Suggest a Temporary Surge

 The national average price for a gallon of regular gas eclipsed $3.50 earlier this month, the highest point since October amid rising oil prices and geopolitical conflict, the pace of the rise has since eased and analysts suggest prices may drop in the longer term.

 American drivers are paying about $3.53 for a gallon of gas on average as of Saturday, according to data from both GasBuddy and AAA.

Patrick De Haan, head petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, said he expects average gas prices to reach a peak in April and May, noting he “fully expects” thousands of gas stations in the U.S. to offer gas at $2.99 per gallon by the last quarter of 2024.

De Haan also said gas prices “aren’t rising faster than usual,” as the average price for a gallon of gas has risen near the average recorded over the past several years, according to GasBuddy data.

A recent AAA analysis noted that an increase in prices to start the year has eased, though “the break may be temporary, as gas pump prices will likely resume a spring increase.”

Paul Hickey, cofounder of Bespoke Investment Group, wrote this year’s increase “doesn’t seem so extreme or worrying,” noting the year-to-year increase in gas prices through March 7 was only slightly ahead of the historical average, according to CNN.

States across the western U.S. have the most expensive gas on average. California tops the list of most expensive states with an average price for regular gasoline at $5.08 per gallon, followed by Hawaii ($4.70) and Washington ($4.52).


Gas prices will likely stay below $4 per gallon and start to “fade” by Memorial Day, De Haan said.


There have only been three years since 2005 when gas prices fell at this time of the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group. One of those years was 2020, when businesses shut down because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

BP’s oil refinery in Whitling, Indiana is expected to return to full production sometime this month, Reuters reported. The plant, the largest operated by BP in the world and the largest refinery in the Midwest, refines about 435,000 barrels per day on average. It was shut down in February after a power outage caused two transformers to fail.


Gas prices have surged to their highest point this month after the West Texas Intermediate, a national benchmark for crude oil, reached a four-month high. The WTI is just over $83 per barrel as of Thursday, while Brent Crude, an international benchmark, is also at a four-month high of $87. Some analysts suggest the recent conflict in the Red Sea, Israel’s war with Hamas and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are factors in surging oil prices. OPEC+, an oil production organization headed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced earlier this month an extension of production cuts through June. The cuts affect the production of about 2.2 million barrels per day, the organization said.