Israel's Ongoing Struggle: Shifting Objectives in the War Against Hamas

Three months ago, in the wake of a devastating series of attacks by Hamas, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to annihilate the organization. "The IDF will immediately use all its strength to destroy Hamas’s capabilities. We will destroy them," he declared.

Now, as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) enter a new phase in their conflict with Hamas in Gaza, signs are emerging that their objectives are undergoing a transformation. According to Bilal Y. Saab, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa at Chatham House, the IDF's leadership acknowledges the challenges of eradicating a deeply rooted political-military movement.

While claiming success in killing thousands of Hamas fighters and dismantling parts of the group's extensive tunnel network, Israel faces persistent challenges. The war, which Israeli officials warn could extend through 2024 and beyond, unfolds against a backdrop of increasing international concern over the humanitarian crisis and civilian casualties in Gaza.

As pressure mounts on the international stage, Netanyahu, an embattled prime minister, finds himself in a race against time. The key questions facing Israel's leadership, as outlined by Saab, center on the tactical success achieved, the associated costs, and the potential for increased international outrage.

The lofty goal of completely destroying Hamas, initially touted by Netanyahu, appears challenging if not impossible. Saab emphasizes that Hamas' influence extends beyond Gaza, making a total defeat ambitious for Israel. Netanyahu's reiterated goals include eliminating Hamas, securing the return of hostages, and ensuring Gaza no longer poses a threat.

However, the IDF's evolving priorities become evident as intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva omits the destruction of Hamas from the listed military goals. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant unveils plans for the next phase, emphasizing a new combat approach in the north and a sustained focus on targeting Hamas leaders in the south.

Analysts suggest that the more realistic target is a severe reduction in Hamas' fighting capabilities. Progress has been made in the past three months, with Hamas' command structure being seriously challenged and dismantled, according to Yohanan Plesner, President of the Israel Democracy Institute.

While Netanyahu claims significant achievements in the form of 8,000 Hamas fighters killed, these figures remain unverified. The Hamas-run Health Ministry reports nearly 23,000 casualties in Gaza, with concerns about the high number of civilian deaths.

Israel's success in targeting Hamas' tunnel network is highlighted, with videos showing the dismantlement of tunnels, including one beneath Al-Shifa Hospital. However, the elusive goal of finding and killing top Hamas leaders remains unmet.

The war's new phase may not bring relief to Palestinians in Gaza, trapped in a humanitarian crisis. Netanyahu faces mounting domestic pressure, particularly concerning the continued captivity of over 100 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7. The return of these hostages is a crucial goal, and failure to achieve it could heighten political pressure on Netanyahu, whose popularity has plummeted since the start of the conflict.

Plesner notes a significant disparity between support for war goals and the IDF, and the dwindling trust in the Israeli government. As Israel grapples with evolving objectives and increasing challenges, the gulf between public sentiment and government actions widens.