Oligarchs, Oil and Obi-dients: The Battle For The Soul Of Nigeria
The end of the oil-fuelled patronage system may pose the greatest threat to the nation since the Civil War. Therein may lie its salvation.
victory once again. Others argue that Obi will split the vote in the south-west and thereby allow the PDP’s Atiku to finally achieve his ambitions, at the sixth attempt, though with less than 50% of the vote. Few give Obi or Kwankwaso a serious chance of winning this time, unless young people register and turn out in far greater numbers than ever before. Voter turnout could be the critical factor in this year’s election.
But there is a wider issue. Does the Obi political insurgency on top of the various armed insurgencies suggest that more and more Nigerians increasingly see the APC and PDP as instruments run by and for political elites, oblivious to people’s everyday concerns? All political parties are coalitions, in Nigeria’s case made up of local power-brokers. Loyalty to the party is weak, and changing allegiance is easy, and common. So the machine politics represented by the APC and PDP may prove weaker that it looks, and some local power-brokers may decide they need to listen to their people, not just their friends.
Beyond the result, though, there is a risk to democracy itself. Elsewhere in Africa – in Tunisia, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea – we have seen citizens disillusioned with democratic politics turn to authoritarian alternatives. In Zimbabwe, also holding general elections later this year, most feel the outcome is a foregone conclusion with ZANU-PF continuing in power, whatever citizens might want. Democracy will only survive if it is able to renew itself, to reform old structures that no longer work, and deliver more for the citizens. Pressure for reform will often come from below, but it needs leaders who listen and respond to be put into practice.
This election marks an inflection point for Nigeria: the possible beginning of fundamental change, or a step closer to disintegration. Democratic revolutions rarely happen overnight. They take hard graft and long years of campaigning. A growing number of Nigerian citizens want to change the way politics is done and seem willing to persevere. Whatever the outcome of this election, that is a good thing.
Whoever is elected will have to recognise that politics is changing. Ruling in the same old way will no longer work: it risks accelerating the country’s disintegration, spreading violence and deepening corruption, with Nigeria becoming the first country in Africa effectively to eat itself.
That would put the rest of West Africa at risk. A democratic, resilient, prosperous and active Nigeria can lead the continent. A chaotic one will hobble the whole of Africa. The world will be watching closely what happens there on 25 February.
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