2024 Polls: Harris Holds A 6-Point Lead Over Trump Among Likely Voters

 Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump in at least nine surveys taken after the Democratic National Convention, adding to her winning polling streak and expanding her edge on Trump since July—though the size of her lead remains unchanged from before the convention.

Harris has a 50%-46% lead with all registered voters and a 52%-46% lead with likely voters, an Ipsos/ABC News poll taken Aug. 23-27 found, essentially unchanged from Harris’ four-point edge among registered voters and five-point lead with likely voters two weeks earlier (margin of error 2 points).

The vice president was up more than five points in both two-way (52.6% to 47.4%) and five-way (49.5% to 44%) matchups with third-party candidates on the ballot, according to an Outward Intelligence survey of 2,191 likely voters taken Aug. 25-29.

Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).

Harris had a 49%-47% edge in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error, as Trump and Harris split independents 45%-45% (the poll—taken Aug. 23-27—allowed respondents to pick third-party candidates, and in a head-to-head race, Harris’ lead shrinks to 49%-48%).

The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).

Harris had a 45%-41% lead in an Ipsos/Reuters poll of registered voters released Aug. 29, outpacing the poll’s 2-point margin of error, and expanding Harris’ one-point advantage in late July (another Ipsos poll that didn’t include Reuters recorded a 5-point Harris lead in early August).

A handful of other surveys showed Harris’ lead virtually unchanged since the Democratic National Convention: She led Trump by two points in an Economist/YouGov poll (similar to three points a week earlier and two points two weeks ago), and just one point in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll (compared to a tie shortly after the Republican National Convention, when Biden remained in the race).

Harris leads Trump by a larger margin—48% to 44%—in an Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey of registered voters, findings that mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 survey taken before the Democratic National Convention, which concluded last week in Chicago.

Surveys have broadly shown a shift in Democrats’ favor since Harris’ July entrance into the race: In the leadup to the DNC, Harris had a 51%-48% edge among likely voters according to CBS and YouGov, and a 50%-46% lead in an Emerson College poll of likely voters.

Just one major poll in recent weeks, taken by Fox News and released Aug. 15, found Trump leading, 50% to 49% among registered voters.

1.8. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 3.2-point lead.

Trump led Harris in at least eight other polls after Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy. Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.

A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.

How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?

Harris leads Trump by two points overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey taken Aug. 23-27. Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states, and is tied in Arizona.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after a Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.